YALE
BULLDOGSYALE
19-4 | Road
76
HARVARD
CRIMSONHARV
14-9 | Home
75
AI Model Win Probability
BULLDOGS
0%
CRIMSON
100%
BULLDOGS
--
CRIMSON
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
129.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-21.0
YALE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +21.0 points (Yale)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around YALE -21.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (YALE)
YALE By 1-7 points
6.8%
YALE By 8-14 points
16.9%
HARV By 1-7 points
1.4%
HARV By 8-14 points
0.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Yale
75
YALE
Harvard
54
HARVARD
Simulated Score
Yale
72
YALE
Harvard
75
HARVARD
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Bulldogs
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Crimson
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Bulldogs (+5.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -21.0
D
Sim
Crimson (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u138.5
Loss
Proj Total: 129.0
D
Sim
u138.5
Win
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 14, 2026
YALE @ HARV
76 - 75
Jan 31, 2026
HARV @ YALE
67 - 65
Mar 1, 2025
YALE @ HARV
69 - 74
Jan 25, 2025
HARV @ YALE
55 - 84
Mar 2, 2024
HARV @ YALE
60 - 80
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+18.1% more
Yale: 16.4
vs
Harvard: 13.4
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+7.3%
Yale: 42.8%
vs
Harvard: 35.5%
Field Goal % (L5)
+6.5%
Yale: 51.3%
vs
Harvard: 44.8%
Blocks (L5)
+73.8% more
Harvard: 3.9
vs
Yale: 2.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
YALE Score
75.0
76
HARV Score
54.0
75
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
35.5 / 42.8
27.0 / 44.0
Assists
13.4 / 16.4
12.0 / 11.0
Blocks
3.9 / 2.3
6.0 / 1.0
Field Goal %
44.8 / 51.3
51.0 / 41.0
Free Throw %
76.7 / 71.9
88.0 / 85.0
Rebounding
32.6 / 33.6
30.0 / 36.0
Steals
7.0 / 6.7
10.0 / 4.0
Turnovers
11.4 / 9.1
8.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
YALE
Advantage
24-7-0
(77.4%)
Margin: 10.4
ATS +/-: -0.2
HARV
17-12-0
(58.6%)
Margin: 3.4
ATS +/-: +2.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
YALE
12-16-1
(42.9%)
Margin: 10.4
ATS +/-: -0.2
HARV
Advantage
12-13-1
(48.0%)
Margin: 3.4
ATS +/-: +2.6
⚖️ Over/Under
YALE
15-14-0
O: 51.7% / U: 48.3%
Total +/-: +1.1
HARV
9-17-0
O: 34.6% / U: 65.4%
Total +/-: -4.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
HARV
YALE
HARV
YALE
ML
45%
13-16
48%
15-16
52%
15-14
58%
18-13
ATS
45%
13-16
65%
20-11
52%
15-14
58%
18-13
TTL
41%
12-17
61%
19-12
100%
29-0
100%
31-0
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