SE LOUISIANA
LIONSSELA
8-17 | Road
66
NORTHWESTERN STATE
DEMONSNWST
7-18 | Home
69
AI Model Win Probability
LIONS
100%
DEMONS
0%
LIONS
--
DEMONS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
135.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
NORTHWESTERN STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (Northwestern State)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around NWST -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NWST)
SELA By 1-7 points
15.3%
SELA By 8-14 points
5.8%
NWST By 1-7 points
26.2%
NWST By 8-14 points
25.3%
AI Model Projected Score
SE Louisiana
64
SE LOUISIANA
Northwestern State
71
NORTHWESTERN STATE
Simulated Score
SE Louisiana
68
SE LOUISIANA
Northwestern State
72
NORTHWESTERN STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Demons
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Demons
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Demons (-1)
Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Sim
Demons (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o131.0
Win
Proj Total: 135.0
D
Sim
u131.0
Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 14, 2026
SELA @ NWST
66 - 69
Dec 7, 2025
NWST @ SELA
76 - 68
Feb 24, 2025
NWST @ SELA
72 - 69
Jan 18, 2025
SELA @ NWST
65 - 64
Feb 10, 2024
SELA @ NWST
69 - 59
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+53.3% more
Northwestern State: 4.7
vs
SE Louisiana: 3.0
Steals (L5)
+45.7% more
Northwestern State: 7.2
vs
SE Louisiana: 4.9
Assists (L5)
+14.7% more
Northwestern State: 14.3
vs
SE Louisiana: 12.4
Free Throw % (L5)
+10.5%
Northwestern State: 69.7%
vs
SE Louisiana: 59.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SELA Score
64.0
66
NWST Score
71.0
69
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
32.3 / 31.5
38.0 / 29.0
Assists
14.3 / 12.4
13.0 / 8.0
Blocks
4.7 / 3.0
1.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
41.3 / 45.0
46.0 / 49.0
Free Throw %
69.7 / 59.2
85.0 / 67.0
Rebounding
35.2 / 32.2
21.0 / 33.0
Steals
7.2 / 4.9
12.0 / 5.0
Turnovers
10.6 / 11.6
9.0 / 16.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SELA
9-22-0
(29.0%)
Margin: -5.4
ATS +/-: -0.9
NWST
Advantage
10-22-0
(31.3%)
Margin: -4.1
ATS +/-: +0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SELA
14-16-0
(46.7%)
Margin: -5.4
ATS +/-: -0.9
NWST
Advantage
16-13-1
(55.2%)
Margin: -4.1
ATS +/-: +0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
SELA
13-17-0
O: 43.3% / U: 56.7%
Total +/-: -1.4
NWST
15-15-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: -2.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NWST
SELA
NWST
SELA
ML
68%
21-10
70%
21-9
77%
23-7
66%
19-10
ATS
68%
21-10
60%
18-12
77%
23-7
67%
20-10
TTL
39%
12-19
70%
21-9
100%
30-0
100%
30-0
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