STEPHEN F. AUSTIN
LUMBERJACKSSFA
22-3 | Road
66
UT RIO GRANDE VALLEY
VAQUEROSRGV
14-11 | Home
57
AI Model Win Probability
LUMBERJACKS
0%
VAQUEROS
100%
LUMBERJACKS
--
VAQUEROS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
140.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-38.0
STEPHEN F. AUSTIN
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +38.0 points (Stephen F. Austin)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around SFA -38.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SFA)
SFA By 1-7 points
0.1%
SFA By 8-14 points
0.8%
RGV By 1-7 points
0.0%
RGV By 8-14 points
0.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Stephen F. Austin
89
STEPHEN F. AUSTIN
UT Rio Grande Valley
51
UT RIO GRANDE VALLEY
Simulated Score
Stephen F. Austin
79
STEPHEN F. AUSTIN
UT Rio Grande Valley
68
UT RIO GRANDE VALLEY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Lumberjacks
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Lumberjacks
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Lumberjacks (-1.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -38.0
D
Sim
Lumberjacks (-0)
Win
Proj Spread: -11.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u143.5
Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Sim
u143.5
Win
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 14, 2026
SFA @ RGV
66 - 57
Dec 3, 2025
RGV @ SFA
60 - 73
Feb 10, 2025
RGV @ SFA
75 - 85
Dec 5, 2024
SFA @ RGV
65 - 68
Feb 8, 2024
RGV @ SFA
84 - 92
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+13.6% more
Stephen F. Austin: 7.8
vs
UT Rio Grande Valley: 6.7
Blocks (L5)
+8.6% more
Stephen F. Austin: 3.5
vs
UT Rio Grande Valley: 3.2
Turnovers (L5)
+41.0% more
UT Rio Grande Valley: 13.5
vs
Stephen F. Austin: 9.6
Assists (L5)
+25.3% more
UT Rio Grande Valley: 17.7
vs
Stephen F. Austin: 14.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SFA Score
89.0
66
RGV Score
51.0
57
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
40.5 / 40.7
19.0 / 22.0
Assists
17.7 / 14.1
11.0 / 8.0
Blocks
3.2 / 3.5
4.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
53.2 / 46.6
40.0 / 37.0
Free Throw %
85.4 / 71.5
73.0 / 65.0
Rebounding
37.3 / 32.9
35.0 / 44.0
Steals
6.7 / 7.8
2.0 / 6.0
Turnovers
13.5 / 9.6
13.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SFA
Advantage
28-6-0
(82.4%)
Margin: 10.0
ATS +/-: +3.1
RGV
19-14-0
(57.6%)
Margin: 6.4
ATS +/-: +4.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SFA
Advantage
23-9-0
(71.9%)
Margin: 10.0
ATS +/-: +3.1
RGV
18-13-0
(58.1%)
Margin: 6.4
ATS +/-: +4.1
⚖️ Over/Under
SFA
14-18-0
O: 43.8% / U: 56.3%
Total +/-: -0.9
RGV
13-18-0
O: 41.9% / U: 58.1%
Total +/-: -1.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
RGV
SFA
RGV
SFA
ML
53%
16-14
59%
17-12
54%
15-13
79%
23-6
ATS
53%
16-14
59%
17-12
54%
15-13
79%
23-6
TTL
60%
18-12
62%
18-11
100%
28-0
100%
29-0
Contextual Game News
