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NICHOLLS

COLONELSNICH

10-15  |  Road

91
FINAL
Sat, Feb 14 • 5:00 PM ET
McDermott Center
View Odds Details →

INCARNATE WORD

CARDINALSUIW

10-15  |  Home

83
AI Model Win Probability
COLONELS
100%
📊
CARDINALS
0%
COLONELS --
CARDINALS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
136.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-32.0
INCARNATE WORD
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +32.0 points (Incarnate Word)
ColonelsNICH (-3.5) 0 CardinalsUIW (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Colonels Cover

0.1%

Cardinals Cover

99.9%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around UIW -32.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UIW)

NICH By 1-7 points

0.1%

NICH By 8-14 points

0.0%

UIW By 1-7 points

0.6%

UIW By 8-14 points

3.3%

AI Model Projected Score
52
NICHOLLS
84
INCARNATE WORD
Simulated Score
78
NICHOLLS
65
INCARNATE WORD
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Cardinals Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Colonels Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Cardinals (-1.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -32.0
D
Sim Colonels (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u149.0 Loss
Proj Total: 136.0
D
Sim u149.0 Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 14, 2026 NICH @ UIW 91 - 83
Dec 6, 2025 UIW @ NICH 67 - 74
Mar 10, 2025 UIW @ NICH 70 - 74
Jan 13, 2025 NICH @ UIW 88 - 82
Feb 26, 2024 UIW @ NICH 82 - 92
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +38.9% more
Incarnate Word: 14.9 vs Nicholls: 10.7
Rebounding (L5) +29.6% more
Incarnate Word: 33.7 vs Nicholls: 26.0
Free Throw % (L5) +13.8%
Incarnate Word: 77.6% vs Nicholls: 63.8%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +9.6%
Incarnate Word: 39.4% vs Nicholls: 29.8%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NICH Score 52.0 91
UIW Score 84.0 83
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 39.4 / 29.8 38.0 / 53.0
Assists 9.5 / 11.0 11.0 / 18.0
Blocks 1.9 / 3.0 1.0 / 6.0
Field Goal % 42.8 / 43.6 46.0 / 61.0
Free Throw % 77.6 / 63.8 100.0 / 68.0
Rebounding 33.7 / 26.0 35.0 / 28.0
Steals 4.3 / 9.7 2.0 / 4.0
Turnovers 14.9 / 10.7 6.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
33%TICKETS67%
23%MONEY77%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
25%TICKETS75%
9%MONEY91%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
31%TICKETS69%
4%MONEY96%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NICH Advantage
14-19-0 (42.4%)
Margin: -2.5 ATS +/-: -0.3
UIW
12-19-0 (38.7%)
Margin: 0.5 ATS +/-: -2.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NICH Advantage
15-17-0 (46.9%)
Margin: -2.5 ATS +/-: -0.3
UIW
10-18-0 (35.7%)
Margin: 0.5 ATS +/-: -2.0
⚖️ Over/Under
NICH
17-15-0
O: 53.1% / U: 46.9% Total +/-: +1.4
UIW
14-14-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +1.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UIW
NICH
UIW
NICH
ML
47% 14-16
53% 17-15
76% 22-7
68% 19-9
ATS
53% 16-14
47% 15-17
77% 23-7
68% 19-9
TTL
60% 18-12
56% 18-14
100% 30-0
100% 28-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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