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MONTANA STATE

BOBCATSMTST

14-11  |  Road

82
FINAL
Sat, Feb 14 • 9:00 PM ET
Dahlberg Arena
View Odds Details →

MONTANA

GRIZZLIESMONT

14-11  |  Home

71
AI Model Win Probability
BOBCATS
100%
📊
GRIZZLIES
0%
BOBCATS --
GRIZZLIES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
173.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-15.0
MONTANA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +15.0 points (Montana)
BobcatsMTST (-3.5) 0 GrizzliesMONT (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bobcats Cover

6.7%

Grizzlies Cover

93.3%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MONT -15.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MONT)

MTST By 1-7 points

4.8%

MTST By 8-14 points

1.1%

MONT By 1-7 points

15.3%

MONT By 8-14 points

25.3%

AI Model Projected Score
79
MONTANA STATE
94
MONTANA
Simulated Score
72
MONTANA STATE
75
MONTANA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Grizzlies Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Grizzlies Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Grizzlies (-2.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -15.0
D
Sim Grizzlies (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o145.5 Win
Proj Total: 173.0
D
Sim u145.5 Win
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 14, 2026 MTST @ MONT 82 - 71
Jan 17, 2026 MONT @ MTST 67 - 76
Feb 22, 2025 MONT @ MTST 89 - 85
Jan 25, 2025 MTST @ MONT 70 - 77
Mar 13, 2024 MTST @ MONT 85 - 70
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +73.8% more
Montana: 15.2 vs Montana State: 8.8
Turnovers (L5) +73.0% more
Montana: 15.2 vs Montana State: 8.8
Rebounding (L5) +16.0% more
Montana: 34.4 vs Montana State: 29.6
Field Goal % (L5) +7.7%
Montana: 49.4% vs Montana State: 41.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MTST Score 79.0 82
MONT Score 94.0 71
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 37.6 / 33.5 31.0 / 45.0
Assists 15.2 / 8.8 15.0 / 16.0
Blocks 2.2 / 3.2 0.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 49.4 / 41.7 44.0 / 51.0
Free Throw % 72.8 / 77.8 88.0 / 67.0
Rebounding 34.4 / 29.6 33.0 / 30.0
Steals 8.0 / 8.3 3.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 15.2 / 8.8 10.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
17%TICKETS83%
15%MONEY85%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
32%TICKETS68%
41%MONEY59%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
60%TICKETS40%
73%MONEY27%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MTST Advantage
18-14-0 (56.3%)
Margin: 6.5 ATS +/-: +1.9
MONT
18-16-0 (52.9%)
Margin: 2.7 ATS +/-: -0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MTST Advantage
16-12-1 (57.1%)
Margin: 6.5 ATS +/-: +1.9
MONT
15-15-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 2.7 ATS +/-: -0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
MTST
16-13-0
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8% Total +/-: +1.5
MONT
14-15-1
O: 48.3% / U: 51.7% Total +/-: -0.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MONT
MTST
MONT
MTST
ML
39% 13-20
52% 16-15
73% 24-9
67% 20-10
ATS
55% 18-15
52% 16-15
73% 24-9
67% 20-10
TTL
59% 19-13-1
65% 20-11
100% 33-0
100% 30-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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