Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Bengals @ Vandals IDST @ IDHO

IDAHO STATE

BENGALSIDST

10-16  |  Road

69
FINAL
Sat, Feb 14 • 5:00 PM ET
ICCU Arena
View Odds Details →

IDAHO

VANDALSIDHO

13-12  |  Home

99
AI Model Win Probability
BENGALS
100%
📊
VANDALS
0%
BENGALS --
VANDALS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
109.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
IDAHO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (Idaho)
BengalsIDST (-3.5) 0 VandalsIDHO (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bengals Cover

24.2%

Vandals Cover

75.8%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around IDHO -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (IDHO)

IDST By 1-7 points

15.3%

IDST By 8-14 points

5.8%

IDHO By 1-7 points

26.2%

IDHO By 8-14 points

25.3%

AI Model Projected Score
51
IDAHO STATE
58
IDAHO
Simulated Score
68
IDAHO STATE
72
IDAHO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Vandals Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Vandals Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Vandals (-6.5) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Sim Vandals (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u146.5 Loss
Proj Total: 109.0
D
Sim u146.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 14, 2026 IDST @ IDHO 69 - 99
Jan 15, 2026 IDHO @ IDST 68 - 76
Feb 27, 2025 IDST @ IDHO 69 - 65
Feb 1, 2025 IDHO @ IDST 71 - 87
Feb 17, 2024 IDST @ IDHO 53 - 55
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +26.7% more
Idaho: 5.0 vs Idaho State: 4.0
Rebounding (L5) +11.7% more
Idaho: 33.5 vs Idaho State: 30.0
Blocks (L5) +63.0% more
Idaho State: 3.4 vs Idaho: 1.2
Turnovers (L5) +12.0% more
Idaho State: 10.5 vs Idaho: 9.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
IDST Score 51.0 69
IDHO Score 58.0 99
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 30.7 / 30.1 48.0 / 26.0
Assists 10.5 / 9.9 17.0 / 8.0
Blocks 1.2 / 3.4 4.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 42.3 / 44.1 60.0 / 35.0
Free Throw % 74.4 / 75.2 67.0 / 89.0
Rebounding 33.5 / 30.0 41.0 / 30.0
Steals 5.0 / 4.0 7.0 / 9.0
Turnovers 9.3 / 10.5 12.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
2%TICKETS98%
10%MONEY90%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
19%TICKETS81%
2%MONEY98%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
64%TICKETS36%
48%MONEY52%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
IDST
13-20-0 (39.4%)
Margin: -1.6 ATS +/-: -2.5
IDHO Advantage
21-15-0 (58.3%)
Margin: 5.1 ATS +/-: +0.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
IDST
14-16-0 (46.7%)
Margin: -1.6 ATS +/-: -2.5
IDHO Advantage
16-17-0 (48.5%)
Margin: 5.1 ATS +/-: +0.7
⚖️ Over/Under
IDST
17-13-0
O: 56.7% / U: 43.3% Total +/-: +5.4
IDHO
14-19-0
O: 42.4% / U: 57.6% Total +/-: -1.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
IDHO
IDST
IDHO
IDST
ML
56% 20-16
59% 19-13
64% 21-12
72% 23-9
ATS
58% 21-15
50% 16-16
64% 21-12
72% 23-9
TTL
69% 25-11
59% 19-13
100% 33-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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