Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Thundering Herd @ Eagles MRSH @ GASO

MARSHALL

THUNDERING HERDMRSH

16-9  |  Road

87
FINAL
Sat, Feb 14 • 8:30 PM ET
Jack and Ruth Ann Hill Convocation Center
View Odds Details →

GEORGIA SOUTHERN

EAGLESGASO

14-12  |  Home

101
AI Model Win Probability
THUNDERING HERD
100%
📊
EAGLES
0%
THUNDERING HERD --
EAGLES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
135.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-27.0
GEORGIA SOUTHERN
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +27.0 points (Georgia Southern)
Thundering HerdMRSH (-3.5) 0 EaglesGASO (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Thundering Herd Cover

0.3%

Eagles Cover

99.7%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around GASO -27.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (GASO)

MRSH By 1-7 points

0.3%

MRSH By 8-14 points

0.0%

GASO By 1-7 points

2.2%

GASO By 8-14 points

8.0%

AI Model Projected Score
54
MARSHALL
81
GEORGIA SOUTHERN
Simulated Score
72
MARSHALL
78
GEORGIA SOUTHERN
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Eagles Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Eagles Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Eagles (+2.5) Win
Proj Spread: -27.0
D
Sim Eagles (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u162.5 Loss
Proj Total: 135.0
D
Sim u162.5 Win
Proj Total: 150.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 8, 2026 GASO @ MRSH 82 - 78
Feb 27, 2026 GASO @ MRSH 99 - 82
Feb 14, 2026 MRSH @ GASO 87 - 101
Jan 25, 2025 MRSH @ GASO 71 - 67
Jan 11, 2025 GASO @ MRSH 69 - 81
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +63.1% more
Georgia Southern: 5.4 vs Marshall: 3.3
Turnovers (L5) +8.3% more
Georgia Southern: 11.5 vs Marshall: 10.6
Free Throw % (L5) +6.5%
Georgia Southern: 72.7% vs Marshall: 66.3%
Assists (L5) +29.5% more
Marshall: 15.8 vs Georgia Southern: 11.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MRSH Score 54.0 87
GASO Score 81.0 101
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 31.1 / 38.4 47.0 / 38.0
Assists 11.2 / 15.8 13.0 / 12.0
Blocks 5.4 / 3.3 4.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 41.0 / 48.5 52.0 / 42.0
Free Throw % 72.7 / 66.3 81.0 / 80.0
Rebounding 31.4 / 33.9 40.0 / 33.0
Steals 6.4 / 6.1 8.0 / 8.0
Turnovers 11.5 / 10.6 13.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
79%TICKETS21%
91%MONEY9%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
70%TICKETS30%
58%MONEY42%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
26%TICKETS74%
41%MONEY59%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MRSH Advantage
19-13-0 (59.4%)
Margin: 3.1 ATS +/-: -1.8
GASO
21-16-0 (56.8%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-: -0.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MRSH
10-20-1 (33.3%)
Margin: 3.1 ATS +/-: -1.8
GASO Advantage
17-18-0 (48.6%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-: -0.1
⚖️ Over/Under
MRSH
19-11-1
O: 63.3% / U: 36.7% Total +/-: +4.1
GASO
18-17-0
O: 51.4% / U: 48.6% Total +/-: +2.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
GASO
MRSH
GASO
MRSH
ML
56% 20-16
70% 21-9
58% 19-14
62% 18-11
ATS
64% 23-13
70% 21-9
58% 19-14
62% 18-11
TTL
61% 22-14
50% 15-15
100% 33-0
100% 29-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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