Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Rainbow Warriors @ Matadors HAW @ CSUN

HAWAI'I

RAINBOW WARRIORSHAW

18-5  |  Road

60
FINAL
Sat, Feb 14 • 8:00 PM ET
Premier America Credit Union Arena
View Odds Details →

CAL STATE NORTHRIDGE

MATADORSCSUN

15-10  |  Home

84
AI Model Win Probability
RAINBOW WARRIORS
100%
📊
MATADORS
0%
RAINBOW WARRIORS --
MATADORS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
170.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-22.0
CAL STATE NORTHRIDGE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +22.0 points (Cal State Northridge)
Rainbow WarriorsHAW (-3.5) 0 MatadorsCSUN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Rainbow Warriors Cover

1.4%

Matadors Cover

98.6%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around CSUN -22.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CSUN)

HAW By 1-7 points

1.1%

HAW By 8-14 points

0.1%

CSUN By 1-7 points

5.8%

CSUN By 8-14 points

15.3%

AI Model Projected Score
74
HAWAI'I
96
CAL STATE NORTHRIDGE
Simulated Score
68
HAWAI'I
75
CAL STATE NORTHRIDGE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Matadors Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Matadors Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Matadors (+3.5) Win
Proj Spread: -22.0
D
Sim Matadors (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o162.5 Loss
Proj Total: 170.0
D
Sim u162.5 Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 14, 2026 HAW @ CSUN 60 - 84
Jan 24, 2026 CSUN @ HAW 68 - 89
Mar 8, 2025 HAW @ CSUN 73 - 82
Jan 16, 2025 CSUN @ HAW 83 - 60
Mar 14, 2024 CSUN @ HAW 68 - 75
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +46.8% more
Cal State Northridge: 21.9 vs Hawai'i: 14.9
Steals (L5) +11.0% more
Cal State Northridge: 6.6 vs Hawai'i: 5.9
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +10.2%
Cal State Northridge: 46.2% vs Hawai'i: 36.0%
Field Goal % (L5) +4.1%
Cal State Northridge: 51.5% vs Hawai'i: 47.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
HAW Score 74.0 60
CSUN Score 96.0 84
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 46.2 / 36.0 53.0 / 27.0
Assists 21.9 / 14.9 14.0 / 8.0
Blocks 3.6 / 4.1 6.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 51.5 / 47.4 53.0 / 36.0
Free Throw % 58.7 / 75.8 71.0 / 65.0
Rebounding 40.1 / 39.2 36.0 / 38.0
Steals 6.6 / 5.9 10.0 / 8.0
Turnovers 12.8 / 13.7 12.0 / 18.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
84%TICKETS16%
90%MONEY10%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
72%TICKETS28%
83%MONEY17%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
33%TICKETS67%
61%MONEY39%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
HAW Advantage
24-9-0 (72.7%)
Margin: 9.0 ATS +/-: -0.3
CSUN
20-14-0 (58.8%)
Margin: 1.6 ATS +/-: -0.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
HAW
13-18-0 (41.9%)
Margin: 9.0 ATS +/-: -0.3
CSUN Advantage
14-18-0 (43.8%)
Margin: 1.6 ATS +/-: -0.6
⚖️ Over/Under
HAW
13-18-0
O: 41.9% / U: 58.1% Total +/-: -0.1
CSUN
19-13-0
O: 59.4% / U: 40.6% Total +/-: +2.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CSUN
HAW
CSUN
HAW
ML
58% 19-14
61% 20-13
67% 22-11
68% 21-10
ATS
58% 19-14
67% 22-11
67% 22-11
68% 21-10
TTL
58% 19-14
61% 20-13
100% 33-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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