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UMBC

RETRIEVERSUMBC

15-8  |  Road

85
FINAL
Sat, Feb 14 • 1:00 PM ET
Lundholm Gymnasium
View Odds Details →

NEW HAMPSHIRE

WILDCATSUNH

8-15  |  Home

63
AI Model Win Probability
RETRIEVERS
100%
📊
WILDCATS
0%
RETRIEVERS --
WILDCATS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
179.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-19.0
NEW HAMPSHIRE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +19.0 points (New Hampshire)
RetrieversUMBC (-3.5) 0 WildcatsUNH (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Retrievers Cover

2.9%

Wildcats Cover

97.1%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around UNH -19.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UNH)

UMBC By 1-7 points

2.2%

UMBC By 8-14 points

0.4%

UNH By 1-7 points

9.3%

UNH By 8-14 points

20.1%

AI Model Projected Score
80
UMBC
99
NEW HAMPSHIRE
Simulated Score
69
UMBC
78
NEW HAMPSHIRE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Wildcats Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Wildcats Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Wildcats (-12.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -19.0
D
Sim Wildcats (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -9.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o149.5 Loss
Proj Total: 179.0
D
Sim u149.5 Win
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 7, 2026 UNH @ UMBC 69 - 84
Feb 14, 2026 UMBC @ UNH 85 - 63
Jan 10, 2026 UNH @ UMBC 74 - 75
Feb 6, 2025 UMBC @ UNH 78 - 79
Jan 16, 2025 UNH @ UMBC 79 - 76
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +83.1% more
New Hampshire: 11.4 vs UMBC: 6.2
Steals (L5) +43.2% more
New Hampshire: 6.3 vs UMBC: 4.4
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +2.4%
New Hampshire: 31.0% vs UMBC: 28.6%
Blocks (L5) +20.5% more
UMBC: 1.6 vs New Hampshire: 1.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UMBC Score 80.0 85
UNH Score 99.0 63
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 31.0 / 28.6 27.0 / 38.0
Assists 9.5 / 11.1 11.0 / 14.0
Blocks 1.3 / 1.6 1.0 / 0.0
Field Goal % 41.9 / 44.3 38.0 / 52.0
Free Throw % 65.5 / 80.5 65.0 / 84.0
Rebounding 34.6 / 37.0 32.0 / 34.0
Steals 6.3 / 4.4 3.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 11.4 / 6.2 13.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UMBC Advantage
24-9-0 (72.7%)
Margin: 8.8 ATS +/-: +6.0
UNH
9-21-0 (30.0%)
Margin: -5.4 ATS +/-: -2.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UMBC Advantage
19-12-0 (61.3%)
Margin: 8.8 ATS +/-: +6.0
UNH
12-16-0 (42.9%)
Margin: -5.4 ATS +/-: -2.3
⚖️ Over/Under
UMBC
14-17-0
O: 45.2% / U: 54.8% Total +/-: -0.5
UNH
15-13-0
O: 53.6% / U: 46.4% Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UNH
UMBC
UNH
UMBC
ML
70% 19-8
58% 18-13
74% 20-7
55% 17-14
ATS
67% 18-9
68% 21-10
74% 20-7
55% 17-14
TTL
59% 16-11
39% 12-19
100% 27-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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