UC RIVERSIDE
HIGHLANDERSUCR
8-18 | Road
66
UC SAN DIEGO
TRITONSUCSD
17-9 | Home
72
AI Model Win Probability
HIGHLANDERS
100%
TRITONS
0%
HIGHLANDERS
--
TRITONS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
131.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-23.0
UC SAN DIEGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +23.0 points (UC San Diego)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around UCSD -23.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UCSD)
UCR By 1-7 points
0.8%
UCR By 8-14 points
0.1%
UCSD By 1-7 points
4.8%
UCSD By 8-14 points
13.7%
AI Model Projected Score
UC Riverside
54
UC RIVERSIDE
UC San Diego
77
UC SAN DIEGO
Simulated Score
UC Riverside
68
UC RIVERSIDE
UC San Diego
72
UC SAN DIEGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Tritons
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Tritons
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Tritons (-11.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -23.0
D
Sim
Tritons (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u145.5
Win
Proj Total: 131.0
D
Sim
u145.5
Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 14, 2026
UCR @ UCSD
66 - 72
Jan 10, 2026
UCSD @ UCR
69 - 66
Feb 6, 2025
UCR @ UCSD
71 - 91
Jan 18, 2025
UCSD @ UCR
81 - 85
Feb 22, 2024
UCSD @ UCR
77 - 65
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+26.0% more
UC San Diego: 7.2
vs
UC Riverside: 5.7
Rebounding (L5)
+11.8% more
UC San Diego: 36.7
vs
UC Riverside: 32.8
Turnovers (L5)
+11.0% more
UC San Diego: 15.9
vs
UC Riverside: 14.3
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+2.3%
UC San Diego: 34.2%
vs
UC Riverside: 31.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
UCR Score
54.0
66
UCSD Score
77.0
72
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
34.2 / 31.9
20.0 / 29.0
Assists
12.2 / 13.1
19.0 / 12.0
Blocks
4.4 / 4.2
2.0 / 6.0
Field Goal %
45.1 / 46.3
43.0 / 37.0
Free Throw %
66.6 / 70.5
75.0 / 88.0
Rebounding
36.7 / 32.8
40.0 / 37.0
Steals
7.2 / 5.7
8.0 / 4.0
Turnovers
15.9 / 14.3
10.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UCR
10-22-0
(31.3%)
Margin: -4.9
ATS +/-: +0.4
UCSD
Advantage
23-11-0
(67.7%)
Margin: 5.4
ATS +/-: -0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UCR
14-14-2
(50.0%)
Margin: -4.9
ATS +/-: +0.4
UCSD
Advantage
17-15-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 5.4
ATS +/-: -0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
UCR
16-14-0
O: 53.3% / U: 46.7%
Total +/-: +1.3
UCSD
12-20-0
O: 37.5% / U: 62.5%
Total +/-: -6.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UCSD
UCR
UCSD
UCR
ML
56%
19-15
66%
21-11
65%
22-12
75%
24-8
ATS
50%
17-17
59%
19-13
65%
22-12
75%
24-8
TTL
62%
21-13
66%
21-11
100%
34-0
100%
32-0
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