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DUQUESNE

DUKESDUQ

14-10  |  Road

78
FINAL
Sat, Feb 14 • 4:00 PM ET
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ST. BONAVENTURE

BONNIESSBU

14-10  |  Home

73
AI Model Win Probability
DUKES
100%
📊
BONNIES
0%
DUKES --
BONNIES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
135.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.0
ST. BONAVENTURE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.0 points (St. Bonaventure)
DukesDUQ (-3.5) 0 BonniesSBU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Dukes Cover

30.9%

Bonnies Cover

69.1%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around SBU -5.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SBU)

DUQ By 1-7 points

18.6%

DUQ By 8-14 points

8.0%

SBU By 1-7 points

27.2%

SBU By 8-14 points

23.0%

AI Model Projected Score
65
DUQUESNE
70
ST. BONAVENTURE
Simulated Score
68
DUQUESNE
72
ST. BONAVENTURE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Bonnies Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Bonnies Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Bonnies (-1.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Sim Bonnies (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u152.5 Win
Proj Total: 135.0
D
Sim u152.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 14, 2026 DUQ @ SBU 78 - 73
Jan 28, 2026 SBU @ DUQ 87 - 79
Mar 13, 2025 DUQ @ SBU 59 - 64
Feb 22, 2025 DUQ @ SBU 63 - 70
Jan 18, 2025 SBU @ DUQ 57 - 75
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +171.6% more
St. Bonaventure: 4.6 vs Duquesne: 1.7
Turnovers (L5) +48.6% more
St. Bonaventure: 13.1 vs Duquesne: 8.8
Assists (L5) +17.4% more
St. Bonaventure: 15.2 vs Duquesne: 13.0
Field Goal % (L5) +6.9%
St. Bonaventure: 51.9% vs Duquesne: 45.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DUQ Score 65.0 78
SBU Score 70.0 73
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 40.5 / 35.7 33.0 / 37.0
Assists 15.2 / 13.0 14.0 / 13.0
Blocks 4.6 / 1.7 6.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 51.9 / 45.0 49.0 / 44.0
Free Throw % 73.0 / 75.6 73.0 / 69.0
Rebounding 30.4 / 32.0 41.0 / 30.0
Steals 7.6 / 8.8 3.0 / 9.0
Turnovers 13.1 / 8.8 14.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
43%TICKETS57%
68%MONEY32%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
39%TICKETS61%
57%MONEY43%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
54%TICKETS46%
79%MONEY21%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DUQ Advantage
18-15-0 (54.6%)
Margin: 3.1 ATS +/-: -0.3
SBU
17-17-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 1.9 ATS +/-: -2.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DUQ Advantage
14-16-1 (46.7%)
Margin: 3.1 ATS +/-: -0.3
SBU
13-20-0 (39.4%)
Margin: 1.9 ATS +/-: -2.3
⚖️ Over/Under
DUQ
16-15-0
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4% Total +/-: +1.6
SBU
20-13-0
O: 60.6% / U: 39.4% Total +/-: +5.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SBU
DUQ
SBU
DUQ
ML
59% 20-14
53% 17-15
61% 20-13
58% 18-13
ATS
50% 17-17
69% 22-10
61% 20-13
58% 18-13
TTL
38% 13-21
50% 16-16
100% 33-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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