UL MONROE
WARHAWKSULM
4-22 | Road
84
TEXAS STATE
BOBCATSTXST
16-11 | Home
95
AI Model Win Probability
WARHAWKS
0%
BOBCATS
100%
WARHAWKS
--
BOBCATS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
194.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-34.0
UL MONROE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +34.0 points (UL Monroe)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around ULM -34.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ULM)
ULM By 1-7 points
0.4%
ULM By 8-14 points
2.2%
TXST By 1-7 points
0.0%
TXST By 8-14 points
0.0%
AI Model Projected Score
UL Monroe
114
UL MONROE
Texas State
80
TEXAS STATE
Simulated Score
UL Monroe
64
UL MONROE
Texas State
71
TEXAS STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Warhawks
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Bobcats
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Warhawks (-13.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -34.0
D
Sim
Bobcats (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o149.5
Win
Proj Total: 194.0
D
Sim
u149.5
Win
Proj Total: 135.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 14, 2026
ULM @ TXST
84 - 95
Jan 3, 2026
TXST @ ULM
84 - 79
Feb 19, 2025
ULM @ TXST
63 - 80
Feb 13, 2025
TXST @ ULM
72 - 60
Feb 27, 2024
ULM @ TXST
55 - 73
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+48.2% more
Texas State: 13.3
vs
UL Monroe: 9.0
Steals (L5)
+29.0% more
Texas State: 9.1
vs
UL Monroe: 7.1
Field Goal % (L5)
+12.7%
Texas State: 51.5%
vs
UL Monroe: 38.8%
Free Throw % (L5)
+11.3%
Texas State: 83.9%
vs
UL Monroe: 72.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ULM Score
114.0
84
TXST Score
80.0
95
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
31.1 / 25.5
45.0 / 56.0
Assists
13.3 / 9.0
22.0 / 10.0
Blocks
3.8 / 3.9
5.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
51.5 / 38.8
64.0 / 55.0
Free Throw %
83.9 / 72.5
73.0 / 63.0
Rebounding
32.6 / 33.6
31.0 / 21.0
Steals
9.1 / 7.1
5.0 / 5.0
Turnovers
11.8 / 11.9
7.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ULM
4-28-0
(12.5%)
Margin: -11.5
ATS +/-: -0.9
TXST
Advantage
19-13-0
(59.4%)
Margin: 2.9
ATS +/-: -0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ULM
Advantage
18-12-0
(60.0%)
Margin: -11.5
ATS +/-: -0.9
TXST
14-15-1
(48.3%)
Margin: 2.9
ATS +/-: -0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
ULM
20-9-1
O: 69.0% / U: 31.0%
Total +/-: +5.8
TXST
16-14-0
O: 53.3% / U: 46.7%
Total +/-: +2.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TXST
ULM
TXST
ULM
ML
42%
13-18
50%
16-16
83%
25-5
70%
21-9
ATS
48%
15-16
78%
25-7
84%
26-5
70%
21-9
TTL
65%
20-11
59%
19-13
100%
31-0
100%
30-0
