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NEW MEXICO STATE

AGGIESNMSU

11-13  |  Road

79
FINAL
Sat, Feb 14 • 5:00 PM ET
Pete Mathews Coliseum
View Odds Details →

JACKSONVILLE STATE

GAMECOCKSJXST

13-11  |  Home

70
AI Model Win Probability
AGGIES
0%
📊
GAMECOCKS
100%
AGGIES --
GAMECOCKS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
152.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-22.0
NEW MEXICO STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +22.0 points (New Mexico State)
AggiesNMSU (-3.5) 0 GamecocksJXST (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Aggies Cover

98.6%

Gamecocks Cover

1.4%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around NMSU -22.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NMSU)

NMSU By 1-7 points

5.8%

NMSU By 8-14 points

15.3%

JXST By 1-7 points

1.1%

JXST By 8-14 points

0.1%

AI Model Projected Score
87
NEW MEXICO STATE
65
JACKSONVILLE STATE
Simulated Score
68
NEW MEXICO STATE
70
JACKSONVILLE STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Aggies Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Gamecocks Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Aggies (-7.5) Win
Proj Spread: -22.0
D
Sim Gamecocks (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u153.5 Win
Proj Total: 152.0
D
Sim u153.5 Win
Proj Total: 138.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 10, 2026 NMSU @ JXST 68 - 63
Mar 5, 2026 JXST @ NMSU 75 - 77
Feb 14, 2026 NMSU @ JXST 79 - 70
Feb 20, 2025 NMSU @ JXST 61 - 52
Jan 25, 2025 JXST @ NMSU 65 - 59
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +17.1% more
New Mexico State: 13.6 vs Jacksonville State: 11.3
Steals (L5) +12.5% more
New Mexico State: 6.5 vs Jacksonville State: 5.7
Free Throw % (L5) +11.3%
New Mexico State: 78.9% vs Jacksonville State: 67.6%
Turnovers (L5) +25.7% more
Jacksonville State: 13.1 vs New Mexico State: 10.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NMSU Score 87.0 79
JXST Score 65.0 70
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 33.6 / 33.5 35.0 / 38.0
Assists 11.3 / 13.6 9.0 / 16.0
Blocks 3.4 / 3.0 1.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 45.4 / 43.8 37.0 / 43.0
Free Throw % 67.6 / 78.9 68.0 / 84.0
Rebounding 35.9 / 37.0 33.0 / 42.0
Steals 5.7 / 6.5 4.0 / 1.0
Turnovers 13.1 / 10.5 3.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
26%TICKETS74%
12%MONEY88%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
23%TICKETS77%
18%MONEY82%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
73%TICKETS27%
87%MONEY13%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NMSU Advantage
16-16-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 3.1 ATS +/-: -1.4
JXST
15-17-0 (46.9%)
Margin: 4.3 ATS +/-: -0.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NMSU Advantage
14-15-0 (48.3%)
Margin: 3.1 ATS +/-: -1.4
JXST
13-15-1 (46.4%)
Margin: 4.3 ATS +/-: -0.1
⚖️ Over/Under
NMSU
17-11-1
O: 60.7% / U: 39.3% Total +/-: +3.2
JXST
17-11-1
O: 60.7% / U: 39.3% Total +/-: +0.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
JXST
NMSU
JXST
NMSU
ML
50% 16-16
61% 19-12
55% 17-14
67% 20-10
ATS
62% 20-12
65% 20-11
55% 17-14
67% 20-10
TTL
62% 20-12
45% 14-17
100% 31-0
100% 30-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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