LONG BEACH STATE
BEACHLBSU
8-17 | Road
54
UC DAVIS
AGGIESUCD
15-10 | Home
71
AI Model Win Probability
BEACH
100%
AGGIES
0%
BEACH
--
AGGIES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
110.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-8.0
UC DAVIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +8.0 points (UC Davis)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around UCD -8.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UCD)
LBSU By 1-7 points
13.7%
LBSU By 8-14 points
4.8%
UCD By 1-7 points
25.3%
UCD By 8-14 points
26.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Long Beach State
51
LONG BEACH STATE
UC Davis
59
UC DAVIS
Simulated Score
Long Beach State
68
LONG BEACH STATE
UC Davis
72
UC DAVIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Aggies
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Aggies
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Aggies (-4.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Sim
Aggies (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u149.5
Win
Proj Total: 110.0
D
Sim
u149.5
Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 5, 2026
UCD @ LBSU
76 - 70
Feb 14, 2026
LBSU @ UCD
54 - 71
Feb 6, 2025
UCD @ LBSU
73 - 65
Jan 11, 2025
LBSU @ UCD
84 - 73
Mar 16, 2024
LBSU @ UCD
74 - 70
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+32.3% more
UC Davis: 9.9
vs
Long Beach State: 7.5
Rebounding (L5)
+10.2% more
UC Davis: 32.8
vs
Long Beach State: 29.8
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+2.9%
UC Davis: 35.4%
vs
Long Beach State: 32.5%
Free Throw % (L5)
+18.4%
Long Beach State: 77.2%
vs
UC Davis: 58.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
LBSU Score
51.0
54
UCD Score
59.0
71
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
35.4 / 32.5
33.0 / 21.0
Assists
13.3 / 13.6
17.0 / 9.0
Blocks
2.6 / 2.7
6.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
40.2 / 48.8
47.0 / 36.0
Free Throw %
58.7 / 77.2
90.0 / 69.0
Rebounding
32.8 / 29.8
34.0 / 26.0
Steals
9.9 / 7.5
8.0 / 8.0
Turnovers
12.7 / 13.2
15.0 / 16.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LBSU
10-22-0
(31.3%)
Margin: -2.9
ATS +/-: +0.4
UCD
Advantage
19-14-0
(57.6%)
Margin: 2.5
ATS +/-: +0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LBSU
Advantage
16-13-1
(55.2%)
Margin: -2.9
ATS +/-: +0.4
UCD
17-14-1
(54.8%)
Margin: 2.5
ATS +/-: +0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
LBSU
19-10-1
O: 65.5% / U: 34.5%
Total +/-: +4.7
UCD
18-14-0
O: 56.3% / U: 43.8%
Total +/-: +1.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UCD
LBSU
UCD
LBSU
ML
58%
19-14
55%
17-14
64%
21-12
65%
20-11
ATS
61%
20-13
68%
21-10
64%
21-12
65%
20-11
TTL
61%
20-13
61%
19-12
100%
33-0
100%
31-0
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