TOLEDO
ROCKETSTOL
13-12 | Road
70
BOWLING GREEN
FALCONSBGSU
15-10 | Home
80
AI Model Win Probability
ROCKETS
100%
FALCONS
0%
ROCKETS
--
FALCONS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
163.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
BOWLING GREEN
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Bowling Green)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around BGSU -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BGSU)
TOL By 1-7 points
21.6%
TOL By 8-14 points
10.7%
BGSU By 1-7 points
27.2%
BGSU By 8-14 points
20.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Toledo
80
TOLEDO
Bowling Green
83
BOWLING GREEN
Simulated Score
Toledo
77
TOLEDO
Bowling Green
70
BOWLING GREEN
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Falcons
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Rockets
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Falcons (+3.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Sim
Rockets (-0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o150.5
Loss
Proj Total: 163.0
D
Sim
u150.5
Win
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 12, 2026
BGSU @ TOL
76 - 77
Feb 14, 2026
TOL @ BGSU
70 - 80
Jan 24, 2026
BGSU @ TOL
72 - 73
Feb 21, 2025
BGSU @ TOL
69 - 68
Jan 24, 2025
TOL @ BGSU
84 - 71
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+63.4% more
Bowling Green: 14.2
vs
Toledo: 8.7
Steals (L5)
+33.6% more
Bowling Green: 10.0
vs
Toledo: 7.5
Rebounding (L5)
+16.9% more
Bowling Green: 35.9
vs
Toledo: 30.7
Free Throw % (L5)
+4.7%
Bowling Green: 76.3%
vs
Toledo: 71.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TOL Score
80.0
70
BGSU Score
83.0
80
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
29.2 / 38.1
52.0 / 42.0
Assists
11.3 / 14.3
13.0 / 14.0
Blocks
4.0 / 3.8
6.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
45.2 / 51.6
47.0 / 39.0
Free Throw %
76.3 / 71.6
68.0 / 77.0
Rebounding
35.9 / 30.7
36.0 / 40.0
Steals
10.0 / 7.5
7.0 / 6.0
Turnovers
14.2 / 8.7
7.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TOL
19-15-0
(55.9%)
Margin: 4.4
ATS +/-: +2.0
BGSU
Advantage
18-14-0
(56.3%)
Margin: 9.8
ATS +/-: -0.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TOL
Advantage
18-13-1
(58.1%)
Margin: 4.4
ATS +/-: +2.0
BGSU
14-14-1
(50.0%)
Margin: 9.8
ATS +/-: -0.1
⚖️ Over/Under
TOL
13-19-0
O: 40.6% / U: 59.4%
Total +/-: -0.8
BGSU
11-18-0
O: 37.9% / U: 62.1%
Total +/-: -1.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BGSU
TOL
BGSU
TOL
ML
66%
21-11
48%
16-17
56%
18-14
61%
20-13
ATS
72%
23-9
48%
16-17
56%
18-14
61%
20-13
TTL
53%
17-15
64%
21-12
100%
32-0
100%
33-0
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