Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Thunderbirds @ Mavericks SUU @ UTA

SOUTHERN UTAH

THUNDERBIRDSSUU

8-17  |  Road

78
FINAL
Sat, Feb 14 • 3:00 PM ET
College Park Center
View Odds Details →

UT ARLINGTON

MAVERICKSUTA

14-10  |  Home

73
AI Model Win Probability
THUNDERBIRDS
100%
📊
MAVERICKS
0%
THUNDERBIRDS --
MAVERICKS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
145.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-15.0
UT ARLINGTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +15.0 points (UT Arlington)
ThunderbirdsSUU (-3.5) 0 MavericksUTA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Thunderbirds Cover

6.7%

Mavericks Cover

93.3%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around UTA -15.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UTA)

SUU By 1-7 points

4.8%

SUU By 8-14 points

1.1%

UTA By 1-7 points

15.3%

UTA By 8-14 points

25.3%

AI Model Projected Score
65
SOUTHERN UTAH
80
UT ARLINGTON
Simulated Score
70
SOUTHERN UTAH
81
UT ARLINGTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Mavericks Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Mavericks Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Mavericks (-8.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -15.0
D
Sim Mavericks (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -11.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o143.5 Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Sim u143.5 Win
Proj Total: 151.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 12, 2026 SUU @ UTA 63 - 69
Feb 14, 2026 SUU @ UTA 78 - 73
Jan 29, 2026 SUU @ UTA 61 - 80
Jan 3, 2026 UTA @ SUU 86 - 77
Jan 30, 2025 SUU @ UTA 68 - 70
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +47.9% more
UT Arlington: 7.0 vs Southern Utah: 4.8
Turnovers (L5) +12.6% more
UT Arlington: 15.8 vs Southern Utah: 14.0
Field Goal % (L5) +5.4%
UT Arlington: 50.5% vs Southern Utah: 45.2%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +12.1%
Southern Utah: 38.5% vs UT Arlington: 26.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SUU Score 65.0 78
UTA Score 80.0 73
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 26.4 / 38.5 33.0 / 33.0
Assists 11.5 / 13.0 13.0 / 16.0
Blocks 4.2 / 4.3 2.0 / 6.0
Field Goal % 50.5 / 45.2 41.0 / 54.0
Free Throw % 69.0 / 72.2 69.0 / 70.0
Rebounding 33.4 / 33.4 28.0 / 38.0
Steals 7.0 / 4.8 9.0 / 2.0
Turnovers 15.8 / 14.0 9.0 / 16.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
2%TICKETS98%
38%MONEY62%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
26%TICKETS74%
33%MONEY67%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
40%TICKETS60%
5%MONEY95%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SUU
10-22-0 (31.3%)
Margin: -3.2 ATS +/-: 0.0
UTA Advantage
18-14-0 (56.3%)
Margin: 3.3 ATS +/-: +1.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SUU
14-14-1 (50.0%)
Margin: -3.2 ATS +/-: 0.0
UTA Advantage
17-13-0 (56.7%)
Margin: 3.3 ATS +/-: +1.6
⚖️ Over/Under
SUU
17-12-0
O: 58.6% / U: 41.4% Total +/-: +3.5
UTA
7-23-0
O: 23.3% / U: 76.7% Total +/-: -4.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UTA
SUU
UTA
SUU
ML
50% 16-16
61% 19-12
62% 20-12
68% 21-10
ATS
59% 19-13
71% 22-9
62% 20-12
69% 22-10
TTL
53% 17-15
52% 16-15
100% 32-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Kansas Shakes Up Offensive Line: Amir Herring Promoted to Starti…
si 2 days, 9 hours ago
Jason Kidd in Advanced Talks to Join ESPN's NBA Countdown as Ana…
yahoo 2 days, 23 hours ago
Jason Kidd Nears ESPN Studio Analyst Role for NBA Countdown
theathleticuk 3 days, 4 hours ago
Alabama's Keelon Russell Silences Doubters with Explosive Perfor…
si 5 days, 3 hours ago
Ryan Smith Vows Major Estate Gift to BYU, Calls College Sports '…
yahoo 1 week, 2 days ago