Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Falcons @ Bulldogs AF @ FRES

AIR FORCE

FALCONSAF

3-21  |  Road

63
FINAL
Sat, Feb 14 • 5:00 PM ET
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FRESNO STATE

BULLDOGSFRES

11-13  |  Home

93
AI Model Win Probability
FALCONS
100%
📊
BULLDOGS
0%
FALCONS --
BULLDOGS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
175.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
FRESNO STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Fresno State)
FalconsAF (-3.5) 0 BulldogsFRES (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Falcons Cover

38.2%

Bulldogs Cover

61.8%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around FRES -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (FRES)

AF By 1-7 points

21.6%

AF By 8-14 points

10.7%

FRES By 1-7 points

27.2%

FRES By 8-14 points

20.1%

AI Model Projected Score
86
AIR FORCE
89
FRESNO STATE
Simulated Score
62
AIR FORCE
65
FRESNO STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Bulldogs Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Bulldogs Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Bulldogs (+15.5) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Sim Bulldogs (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o142.5 Win
Proj Total: 175.0
D
Sim u142.5 Win
Proj Total: 127.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 14, 2026 AF @ FRES 63 - 93
Jan 31, 2026 FRES @ AF 79 - 62
Feb 22, 2025 FRES @ AF 69 - 72
Jan 17, 2025 AF @ FRES 65 - 74
Feb 10, 2024 FRES @ AF 68 - 66
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +27.9% more
Fresno State: 5.9 vs Air Force: 4.6
Rebounding (L5) +26.3% more
Fresno State: 33.4 vs Air Force: 26.4
Free Throw % (L5) +11.8%
Fresno State: 75.8% vs Air Force: 64.1%
Turnovers (L5) +32.3% more
Air Force: 16.3 vs Fresno State: 11.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
AF Score 86.0 63
FRES Score 89.0 93
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 33.6 / 40.7 30.0 / 31.0
Assists 11.0 / 15.3 15.0 / 14.0
Blocks 1.2 / 1.8 4.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 42.1 / 44.9 55.0 / 39.0
Free Throw % 75.8 / 64.1 71.0 / 80.0
Rebounding 33.4 / 26.4 37.0 / 28.0
Steals 5.9 / 4.6 9.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 11.1 / 16.3 9.0 / 18.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
2%TICKETS98%
9%MONEY91%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
23%TICKETS77%
53%MONEY47%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
39%TICKETS61%
13%MONEY87%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
AF
3-29-0 (9.4%)
Margin: -18.3 ATS +/-: -4.9
FRES Advantage
13-19-0 (40.6%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-: +2.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
AF
10-21-1 (32.3%)
Margin: -18.3 ATS +/-: -4.9
FRES Advantage
21-10-0 (67.7%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-: +2.5
⚖️ Over/Under
AF
19-13-0
O: 59.4% / U: 40.6% Total +/-: +0.2
FRES
13-18-0
O: 41.9% / U: 58.1% Total +/-: -4.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
FRES
AF
FRES
AF
ML
59% 19-13
81% 26-6
74% 23-8
62% 20-12
ATS
75% 24-8
69% 22-10
74% 23-8
62% 20-12
TTL
56% 18-14
69% 22-10
100% 31-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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