Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Lopes @ Spartans GCU @ SJSU

GRAND CANYON

LOPESGCU

15-9  |  Road

94
FINAL
Sat, Feb 14 • 5:00 PM ET
Provident Credit Union Event Center
View Odds Details →

SAN JOSÉ STATE

SPARTANSSJSU

6-18  |  Home

79
AI Model Win Probability
LOPES
100%
📊
SPARTANS
0%
LOPES --
SPARTANS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
122.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.0
SAN JOSÉ STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.0 points (San José State)
LopesGCU (-3.5) 0 SpartansSJSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Lopes Cover

27.4%

Spartans Cover

72.6%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around SJSU -6.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SJSU)

GCU By 1-7 points

16.9%

GCU By 8-14 points

6.8%

SJSU By 1-7 points

26.8%

SJSU By 8-14 points

24.3%

AI Model Projected Score
58
GRAND CANYON
64
SAN JOSÉ STATE
Simulated Score
78
GRAND CANYON
65
SAN JOSÉ STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Spartans Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Lopes Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Spartans (+11.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Sim Lopes (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u139.5 Loss
Proj Total: 122.0
D
Sim u139.5 Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 14, 2026 GCU @ SJSU 94 - 79
Jan 10, 2026 SJSU @ GCU 58 - 76
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +12.9% more
San José State: 11.7 vs Grand Canyon: 10.4
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +8.3%
San José State: 36.5% vs Grand Canyon: 28.2%
Free Throw % (L5) +5.5%
San José State: 77.8% vs Grand Canyon: 72.3%
Steals (L5) +39.9% more
Grand Canyon: 7.8 vs San José State: 4.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
GCU Score 58.0 94
SJSU Score 64.0 79
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 36.5 / 28.2 43.0 / 30.0
Assists 11.7 / 10.4 13.0 / 20.0
Blocks 2.2 / 3.6 1.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 38.6 / 42.9 49.0 / 62.0
Free Throw % 77.8 / 72.3 83.0 / 84.0
Rebounding 29.3 / 35.5 17.0 / 36.0
Steals 4.7 / 7.8 7.0 / 4.0
Turnovers 7.0 / 11.4 7.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
98%TICKETS2%
51%MONEY49%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
65%TICKETS35%
78%MONEY22%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
83%TICKETS17%
75%MONEY25%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
GCU Advantage
20-12-0 (62.5%)
Margin: 7.0 ATS +/-: +0.8
SJSU
9-24-0 (27.3%)
Margin: -6.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
GCU Advantage
17-15-0 (53.1%)
Margin: 7.0 ATS +/-: +0.8
SJSU
16-16-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -6.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
GCU
13-18-1
O: 41.9% / U: 58.1% Total +/-: -3.4
SJSU
21-11-0
O: 65.6% / U: 34.4% Total +/-: +5.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SJSU
GCU
SJSU
GCU
ML
73% 24-9
66% 21-11
62% 20-12
68% 21-10
ATS
73% 24-9
72% 23-9
62% 20-12
68% 21-10
TTL
61% 20-13
44% 14-18
100% 32-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Michigan State Lands Five-Star Point Guard Antonio Pemberton: Wh…
yahoo 2 weeks, 6 days ago
Brady Pretzlaff's Long Road Back to Spartan Stadium: A Promise F…
yahoo 3 weeks, 5 days ago
Virginia Set for Friday Night Blowout Against Norfolk State, Ana…
si 4 weeks ago
Former Michigan State Forward Jaxon Kohler Finds New Home at BYU
newspub_live 1 month, 2 weeks ago
Dec 6, 2025; East Lansing, Michigan, USA; Duke Blue Devils cente…
si 2 months, 1 week ago