LITTLE ROCK
TROJANSLR
10-16 | Road
72
EASTERN ILLINOIS
PANTHERSEIU
10-16 | Home
78
AI Model Win Probability
TROJANS
100%
PANTHERS
0%
TROJANS
--
PANTHERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
145.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
EASTERN ILLINOIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Eastern Illinois)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around EIU -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (EIU)
LR By 1-7 points
21.6%
LR By 8-14 points
10.7%
EIU By 1-7 points
27.2%
EIU By 8-14 points
20.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Little Rock
71
LITTLE ROCK
Eastern Illinois
74
EASTERN ILLINOIS
Simulated Score
Little Rock
68
LITTLE ROCK
Eastern Illinois
72
EASTERN ILLINOIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Panthers
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Panthers
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Panthers (+1.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Sim
Panthers (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o135.5
Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Sim
u135.5
Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 14, 2026
LR @ EIU
72 - 78
Jan 15, 2026
EIU @ LR
63 - 74
Feb 27, 2025
LR @ EIU
60 - 71
Jan 27, 2025
EIU @ LR
56 - 54
Feb 3, 2024
LR @ EIU
71 - 47
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+34.8% more
Eastern Illinois: 12.0
vs
Little Rock: 8.9
Blocks (L5)
+49.7% more
Little Rock: 3.9
vs
Eastern Illinois: 2.0
Rebounding (L5)
+20.0% more
Little Rock: 38.4
vs
Eastern Illinois: 30.7
Assists (L5)
+18.4% more
Little Rock: 12.6
vs
Eastern Illinois: 10.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
LR Score
71.0
72
EIU Score
74.0
78
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
33.2 / 35.3
38.0 / 39.0
Assists
10.2 / 12.6
13.0 / 16.0
Blocks
2.0 / 3.9
3.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
42.4 / 41.9
39.0 / 45.0
Free Throw %
68.4 / 67.0
73.0 / 61.0
Rebounding
30.7 / 38.4
43.0 / 34.0
Steals
7.5 / 7.1
7.0 / 4.0
Turnovers
12.0 / 8.9
8.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LR
12-20-0
(37.5%)
Margin: -3.6
ATS +/-: -2.0
EIU
Advantage
13-20-0
(39.4%)
Margin: -3.2
ATS +/-: +0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LR
12-18-0
(40.0%)
Margin: -3.6
ATS +/-: -2.0
EIU
Advantage
15-13-2
(53.6%)
Margin: -3.2
ATS +/-: +0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
LR
15-15-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +1.0
EIU
14-16-0
O: 46.7% / U: 53.3%
Total +/-: -1.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
EIU
LR
EIU
LR
ML
56%
18-14
52%
16-15
74%
23-8
68%
17-8
ATS
50%
16-16
45%
14-17
74%
23-8
68%
17-8
TTL
69%
22-10
58%
18-13
100%
31-0
100%
25-0
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