Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Vikings @ Bears PRST @ UNCO

PORTLAND STATE

VIKINGSPRST

17-6  |  Road

65
FINAL
Sat, Feb 14 • 4:00 PM ET
Bank of Colorado Arena
View Odds Details →

NORTHERN COLORADO

BEARSUNCO

16-10  |  Home

77
AI Model Win Probability
VIKINGS
0%
📊
BEARS
100%
VIKINGS --
BEARS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
152.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-18.0
PORTLAND STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +18.0 points (Portland State)
VikingsPRST (-3.5) 0 BearsUNCO (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Vikings Cover

96.4%

Bears Cover

3.6%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around PRST -18.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PRST)

PRST By 1-7 points

10.7%

PRST By 8-14 points

21.6%

UNCO By 1-7 points

2.7%

UNCO By 8-14 points

0.5%

AI Model Projected Score
85
PORTLAND STATE
67
NORTHERN COLORADO
Simulated Score
72
PORTLAND STATE
78
NORTHERN COLORADO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Vikings Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Bears Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Vikings (-3.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -18.0
D
Sim Bears (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o148.5 Loss
Proj Total: 152.0
D
Sim u148.5 Win
Proj Total: 150.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 14, 2026 PRST @ UNCO 65 - 77
Jan 15, 2026 UNCO @ PRST 73 - 76
Feb 15, 2025 UNCO @ PRST 71 - 82
Jan 16, 2025 PRST @ UNCO 69 - 72
Feb 15, 2024 UNCO @ PRST 72 - 82
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +45.6% more
Portland State: 6.7 vs Northern Colorado: 3.7
Blocks (L5) +108.2% more
Northern Colorado: 4.8 vs Portland State: 2.3
Assists (L5) +74.2% more
Northern Colorado: 18.4 vs Portland State: 10.6
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +4.7%
Northern Colorado: 36.4% vs Portland State: 31.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
PRST Score 85.0 65
UNCO Score 67.0 77
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 36.4 / 31.7 31.0 / 35.0
Assists 18.4 / 10.6 16.0 / 8.0
Blocks 4.8 / 2.3 2.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 52.7 / 50.5 42.0 / 38.0
Free Throw % 77.6 / 76.7 78.0 / 62.0
Rebounding 37.3 / 34.7 41.0 / 34.0
Steals 3.7 / 6.7 5.0 / 4.0
Turnovers 11.7 / 11.2 6.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
24%TICKETS76%
48%MONEY52%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
46%TICKETS54%
16%MONEY84%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
54%TICKETS46%
65%MONEY35%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PRST Advantage
20-11-0 (64.5%)
Margin: 6.4 ATS +/-: +0.8
UNCO
20-12-0 (62.5%)
Margin: 6.0 ATS +/-: +0.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PRST Advantage
18-9-1 (66.7%)
Margin: 6.4 ATS +/-: +0.8
UNCO
15-13-1 (53.6%)
Margin: 6.0 ATS +/-: +0.5
⚖️ Over/Under
PRST
12-16-0
O: 42.9% / U: 57.1% Total +/-: -0.9
UNCO
16-13-0
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8% Total +/-: +2.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UNCO
PRST
UNCO
PRST
ML
50% 16-16
65% 20-11
66% 21-11
71% 22-9
ATS
53% 17-15
71% 22-9
66% 21-11
71% 22-9
TTL
50% 16-16
47% 14-16-1
100% 32-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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