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MERCYHURST

LAKERSMERC

12-14  |  Road

94
FINAL
Sat, Feb 14 • 2:00 PM ET
DeGol Arena
View Odds Details →

SAINT FRANCIS

RED FLASHSFPA

6-19  |  Home

79
AI Model Win Probability
LAKERS
0%
📊
RED FLASH
100%
LAKERS --
RED FLASH --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
121.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-13.0
MERCYHURST
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +13.0 points (Mercyhurst)
LakersMERC (-3.5) 0 Red FlashSFPA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Lakers Cover

90.3%

Red Flash Cover

9.7%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around MERC -13.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MERC)

MERC By 1-7 points

18.6%

MERC By 8-14 points

26.8%

SFPA By 1-7 points

6.8%

SFPA By 8-14 points

1.7%

AI Model Projected Score
67
MERCYHURST
54
SAINT FRANCIS
Simulated Score
66
MERCYHURST
71
SAINT FRANCIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Lakers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Red Flash Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Lakers (+11.5) Win
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Sim Red Flash (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u147.5 Loss
Proj Total: 121.0
D
Sim u147.5 Win
Proj Total: 137.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 14, 2026 MERC @ SFPA 94 - 79
Feb 5, 2026 SFPA @ MERC 89 - 98
Jan 30, 2025 SFPA @ MERC 58 - 62
Jan 10, 2025 MERC @ SFPA 59 - 73
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +66.5% more
Mercyhurst: 2.8 vs Saint Francis: 0.9
Assists (L5) +14.3% more
Mercyhurst: 13.1 vs Saint Francis: 11.2
Free Throw % (L5) +8.1%
Mercyhurst: 78.3% vs Saint Francis: 70.2%
Turnovers (L5) +62.0% more
Saint Francis: 12.6 vs Mercyhurst: 7.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MERC Score 67.0 94
SFPA Score 54.0 79
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 30.4 / 29.2 47.0 / 38.0
Assists 11.2 / 13.1 14.0 / 16.0
Blocks 0.9 / 2.8 0.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 40.7 / 41.3 52.0 / 60.0
Free Throw % 70.2 / 78.3 61.0 / 89.0
Rebounding 33.3 / 33.0 22.0 / 34.0
Steals 7.6 / 7.4 5.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 12.6 / 7.8 10.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MERC Advantage
17-17-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 2.0 ATS +/-: +2.4
SFPA
7-24-0 (22.6%)
Margin: -9.5 ATS +/-: -1.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MERC Advantage
21-11-0 (65.6%)
Margin: 2.0 ATS +/-: +2.4
SFPA
13-15-1 (46.4%)
Margin: -9.5 ATS +/-: -1.7
⚖️ Over/Under
MERC
16-16-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +1.7
SFPA
15-14-0
O: 51.7% / U: 48.3% Total +/-: +5.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SFPA
MERC
SFPA
MERC
ML
68% 21-10
59% 20-14
67% 20-10
79% 26-7
ATS
68% 21-10
62% 21-13
67% 20-10
79% 26-7
TTL
58% 18-13
53% 18-16
100% 30-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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