Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Bears @ Bulldogs MER @ CIT

MERCER

BEARSMER

16-10  |  Road

70
FINAL
Sat, Feb 14 • 1:00 PM ET
McAlister Field House
View Odds Details →

THE CITADEL

BULLDOGSCIT

9-17  |  Home

54
AI Model Win Probability
BEARS
100%
📊
BULLDOGS
0%
BEARS --
BULLDOGS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
131.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
THE CITADEL
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (The Citadel)
BearsMER (-3.5) 0 BulldogsCIT (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bears Cover

24.2%

Bulldogs Cover

75.8%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around CIT -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CIT)

MER By 1-7 points

15.3%

MER By 8-14 points

5.8%

CIT By 1-7 points

26.2%

CIT By 8-14 points

25.3%

AI Model Projected Score
62
MERCER
69
THE CITADEL
Simulated Score
68
MERCER
72
THE CITADEL
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Bulldogs Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Bulldogs Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Bulldogs (+11.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Sim Bulldogs (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u147.5 Win
Proj Total: 131.0
D
Sim u147.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 14, 2026 MER @ CIT 70 - 54
Jan 7, 2026 CIT @ MER 63 - 101
Feb 19, 2025 MER @ CIT 62 - 52
Jan 29, 2025 CIT @ MER 46 - 80
Mar 8, 2024 CIT @ MER 76 - 84
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +16.9% more
The Citadel: 10.3 vs Mercer: 8.8
Steals (L5) +10.7% more
The Citadel: 6.5 vs Mercer: 5.9
Field Goal % (L5) +2.4%
The Citadel: 39.3% vs Mercer: 37.0%
Blocks (L5) +32.2% more
Mercer: 3.9 vs The Citadel: 2.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MER Score 62.0 70
CIT Score 69.0 54
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 28.2 / 27.4 28.0 / 53.0
Assists 9.9 / 10.2 8.0 / 13.0
Blocks 2.6 / 3.9 2.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 39.3 / 37.0 34.0 / 52.0
Free Throw % 75.0 / 79.5 92.0 / 61.0
Rebounding 31.2 / 40.2 30.0 / 32.0
Steals 6.5 / 5.9 7.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 10.3 / 8.8 13.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
97%TICKETS3%
92%MONEY8%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
70%TICKETS30%
74%MONEY26%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
43%TICKETS57%
68%MONEY32%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MER Advantage
19-13-0 (59.4%)
Margin: 7.2 ATS +/-: +1.1
CIT
11-22-0 (33.3%)
Margin: -7.2 ATS +/-: -0.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MER Advantage
19-10-0 (65.5%)
Margin: 7.2 ATS +/-: +1.1
CIT
15-15-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -7.2 ATS +/-: -0.2
⚖️ Over/Under
MER
14-15-0
O: 48.3% / U: 51.7% Total +/-: +3.3
CIT
15-15-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +2.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CIT
MER
CIT
MER
ML
59% 19-13
55% 17-14
62% 20-12
71% 22-9
ATS
62% 20-12
58% 18-13
64% 21-12
71% 22-9
TTL
53% 17-15
61% 19-12
100% 33-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Kerr Kriisa Pleads Guilty to Wire Fraud, Admits Demanding $9,000…
bleacherreport 0 minutes ago
Kerr Kriisa Pleads Guilty to Wire Fraud in $9,000 Scheme
wsls 0 minutes ago
Gerry McNamara Vows to Bring Syracuse Basketball Back to Nationa…
espn 1 day ago
Cayden Boozer's Return to Duke: Trusting the Vision in a Loaded …
si 1 day, 12 hours ago
Jason Kidd in Advanced Talks to Join ESPN's NBA Countdown as Ana…
yahoo 2 days, 20 hours ago