Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Panthers @ Monarchs GAST @ ODU

GEORGIA STATE

PANTHERSGAST

9-17  |  Road

55
FINAL
Sat, Feb 14 • 3:30 PM ET
Chartway Arena
View Odds Details →

OLD DOMINION

MONARCHSODU

8-18  |  Home

78
AI Model Win Probability
PANTHERS
100%
📊
MONARCHS
0%
PANTHERS --
MONARCHS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
175.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
OLD DOMINION
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Old Dominion)
PanthersGAST (-3.5) 0 MonarchsODU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Panthers Cover

46.0%

Monarchs Cover

54.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around ODU -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ODU)

GAST By 1-7 points

24.3%

GAST By 8-14 points

13.7%

ODU By 1-7 points

26.2%

ODU By 8-14 points

16.9%

AI Model Projected Score
87
GEORGIA STATE
88
OLD DOMINION
Simulated Score
68
GEORGIA STATE
72
OLD DOMINION
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Monarchs Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Monarchs Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Monarchs (+4.5) Win
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim Monarchs (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o147.5 Loss
Proj Total: 175.0
D
Sim u147.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 27, 2026 ODU @ GAST 81 - 73
Feb 14, 2026 GAST @ ODU 55 - 78
Feb 22, 2025 GAST @ ODU 76 - 70
Feb 13, 2025 ODU @ GAST 75 - 97
Feb 17, 2024 GAST @ ODU 68 - 65
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +11.7% more
Old Dominion: 14.3 vs Georgia State: 12.8
Field Goal % (L5) +5.0%
Old Dominion: 45.4% vs Georgia State: 40.4%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +1.5%
Old Dominion: 35.2% vs Georgia State: 33.7%
Blocks (L5) +28.5% more
Georgia State: 3.6 vs Old Dominion: 2.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
GAST Score 87.0 55
ODU Score 88.0 78
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 35.2 / 33.7 50.0 / 26.0
Assists 14.3 / 12.8 21.0 / 11.0
Blocks 2.6 / 3.6 8.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 45.4 / 40.4 55.0 / 26.0
Free Throw % 72.3 / 72.4 63.0 / 83.0
Rebounding 33.8 / 34.6 45.0 / 33.0
Steals 5.2 / 5.7 3.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 9.2 / 9.7 12.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
18%TICKETS82%
37%MONEY63%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
28%TICKETS72%
18%MONEY82%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
45%TICKETS55%
89%MONEY11%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
GAST
10-22-0 (31.3%)
Margin: -4.3 ATS +/-: -1.5
ODU Advantage
12-21-0 (36.4%)
Margin: -1.7 ATS +/-: +0.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
GAST
13-17-0 (43.3%)
Margin: -4.3 ATS +/-: -1.5
ODU Advantage
16-16-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -1.7 ATS +/-: +0.7
⚖️ Over/Under
GAST
14-16-0
O: 46.7% / U: 53.3% Total +/-: -2.4
ODU
21-10-1
O: 67.7% / U: 32.3% Total +/-: +3.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ODU
GAST
ODU
GAST
ML
52% 17-16
56% 18-14
67% 22-11
71% 22-9
ATS
70% 23-10
59% 19-13
67% 22-11
71% 22-9
TTL
70% 23-10
59% 19-13
100% 33-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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