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KENT STATE

GOLDEN FLASHESKENT

18-7  |  Road

75
FINAL
Sat, Feb 14 • 2:00 PM ET
Worthen Arena
View Odds Details →

BALL STATE

CARDINALSBALL

8-16  |  Home

68
AI Model Win Probability
GOLDEN FLASHES
0%
📊
CARDINALS
100%
GOLDEN FLASHES --
CARDINALS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
157.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+7.0
BALL STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Golden FlashesKENT (-3.5) 0 CardinalsBALL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Golden Flashes Cover

24.2%

Cardinals Cover

75.8%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around BALL +7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BALL)

KENT By 1-7 points

26.2%

KENT By 8-14 points

25.3%

BALL By 1-7 points

15.3%

BALL By 8-14 points

5.8%

AI Model Projected Score
82
KENT STATE
75
BALL STATE
Simulated Score
69
KENT STATE
72
BALL STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Golden Flashes Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Cardinals Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Cardinals (+7.5) Win
Proj Spread: +7.0
D
Sim Cardinals (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o143.5 Loss
Proj Total: 157.0
D
Sim u143.5 Win
Proj Total: 141.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 14, 2026 KENT @ BALL 75 - 68
Jan 4, 2025 BALL @ KENT 75 - 67
Mar 5, 2024 KENT @ BALL 69 - 76
Jan 2, 2024 BALL @ KENT 69 - 82
Feb 21, 2023 KENT @ BALL 70 - 82
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +26.8% more
Kent State: 2.5 vs Ball State: 1.9
Assists (L5) +18.9% more
Kent State: 12.5 vs Ball State: 10.1
Rebounding (L5) +18.3% more
Kent State: 37.4 vs Ball State: 30.5
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +5.3%
Kent State: 34.1% vs Ball State: 28.8%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
KENT Score 82.0 75
BALL Score 75.0 68
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 28.8 / 34.1 33.0 / 35.0
Assists 10.1 / 12.5 15.0 / 15.0
Blocks 1.9 / 2.5 3.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 38.9 / 42.5 34.0 / 44.0
Free Throw % 71.4 / 70.9 73.0 / 70.0
Rebounding 30.5 / 37.4 33.0 / 42.0
Steals 7.5 / 6.1 10.0 / 9.0
Turnovers 11.9 / 11.5 10.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
98%TICKETS2%
87%MONEY13%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
65%TICKETS35%
81%MONEY19%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
51%TICKETS49%
57%MONEY43%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
KENT Advantage
24-10-0 (70.6%)
Margin: 4.7 ATS +/-: -2.4
BALL
12-19-0 (38.7%)
Margin: -2.0 ATS +/-: +0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
KENT
12-20-0 (37.5%)
Margin: 4.7 ATS +/-: -2.4
BALL Advantage
14-14-1 (50.0%)
Margin: -2.0 ATS +/-: +0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
KENT
17-14-1
O: 54.8% / U: 45.2% Total +/-: +4.6
BALL
9-19-1
O: 32.1% / U: 67.9% Total +/-: -6.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BALL
KENT
BALL
KENT
ML
43% 13-17
53% 18-16
62% 18-11
65% 22-12
ATS
67% 20-10
65% 22-12
62% 18-11
65% 22-12
TTL
50% 15-15
44% 15-19
100% 29-0
100% 34-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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