Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Golden Eagles @ Musketeers MARQ @ XAV

MARQUETTE

GOLDEN EAGLESMARQ

9-16  |  Road

88
FINAL
Sat, Feb 14 • 3:00 PM ET
Cintas Center
View Odds Details →

XAVIER

MUSKETEERSXAV

12-12  |  Home

96
AI Model Win Probability
GOLDEN EAGLES
0%
📊
MUSKETEERS
100%
GOLDEN EAGLES --
MUSKETEERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
123.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
XAVIER
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Golden EaglesMARQ (-3.5) 0 MusketeersXAV (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Golden Eagles Cover

46.0%

Musketeers Cover

54.0%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around XAV +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (XAV)

MARQ By 1-7 points

26.2%

MARQ By 8-14 points

16.9%

XAV By 1-7 points

24.3%

XAV By 8-14 points

13.7%

AI Model Projected Score
62
MARQUETTE
61
XAVIER
Simulated Score
71
MARQUETTE
78
XAVIER
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Golden Eagles Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Musketeers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Musketeers (+1.5) Win
Proj Spread: +1.0
D
Sim Musketeers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u156.5 Loss
Proj Total: 123.0
D
Sim u156.5 Win
Proj Total: 149.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 11, 2026 XAV @ MARQ 89 - 87
Feb 14, 2026 MARQ @ XAV 88 - 96
Jan 7, 2026 XAV @ MARQ 65 - 66
Mar 13, 2025 MARQ @ XAV 89 - 87
Jan 18, 2025 XAV @ MARQ 59 - 57
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +35.8% more
Marquette: 9.4 vs Xavier: 6.0
Assists (L5) +22.5% more
Marquette: 15.9 vs Xavier: 12.3
Turnovers (L5) +18.6% more
Marquette: 13.8 vs Xavier: 11.2
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +6.2%
Marquette: 39.8% vs Xavier: 33.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MARQ Score 62.0 88
XAV Score 61.0 96
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 33.6 / 39.8 47.0 / 32.0
Assists 12.3 / 15.9 24.0 / 24.0
Blocks 3.4 / 3.6 3.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 44.2 / 48.7 46.0 / 51.0
Free Throw % 68.2 / 68.8 86.0 / 73.0
Rebounding 32.7 / 30.6 40.0 / 36.0
Steals 6.0 / 9.4 6.0 / 4.0
Turnovers 11.2 / 13.8 8.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
20%TICKETS80%
16%MONEY84%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
25%TICKETS75%
35%MONEY65%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
59%TICKETS41%
90%MONEY10%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MARQ
12-20-0 (37.5%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-: -1.5
XAV Advantage
15-18-0 (45.5%)
Margin: -2.3 ATS +/-: -1.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MARQ
12-19-1 (38.7%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-: -1.5
XAV Advantage
16-17-0 (48.5%)
Margin: -2.3 ATS +/-: -1.2
⚖️ Over/Under
MARQ
15-17-0
O: 46.9% / U: 53.1% Total +/-: -1.5
XAV
25-8-0
O: 75.8% / U: 24.2% Total +/-: +6.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
XAV
MARQ
XAV
MARQ
ML
58% 19-14
59% 19-13
72% 23-9
62% 20-12
ATS
73% 24-9
53% 17-15
72% 23-9
62% 20-12
TTL
39% 13-20
50% 16-16
100% 32-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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