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FLORIDA STATE

SEMINOLESFSU

11-13  |  Road

92
FINAL
Sat, Feb 14 • 2:00 PM ET
Cassell Coliseum
View Odds Details →

VIRGINIA TECH

HOKIESVT

17-8  |  Home

69
AI Model Win Probability
SEMINOLES
100%
📊
HOKIES
0%
SEMINOLES --
HOKIES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
184.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-22.0
VIRGINIA TECH
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +22.0 points (Virginia Tech)
SeminolesFSU (-3.5) 0 HokiesVT (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Seminoles Cover

1.4%

Hokies Cover

98.6%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around VT -22.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (VT)

FSU By 1-7 points

1.1%

FSU By 8-14 points

0.1%

VT By 1-7 points

5.8%

VT By 8-14 points

15.3%

AI Model Projected Score
81
FLORIDA STATE
103
VIRGINIA TECH
Simulated Score
70
FLORIDA STATE
75
VIRGINIA TECH
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Hokies Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Hokies Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Hokies (-4.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -22.0
D
Sim Hokies (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o156.5 Win
Proj Total: 184.0
D
Sim u156.5 Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 14, 2026 FSU @ VT 92 - 69
Jan 29, 2025 VT @ FSU 76 - 66
Mar 13, 2024 FSU @ VT 86 - 76
Feb 13, 2024 FSU @ VT 75 - 83
Jan 6, 2024 VT @ FSU 74 - 77
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +50.8% more
Virginia Tech: 12.2 vs Florida State: 8.1
Free Throw % (L5) +12.1%
Virginia Tech: 84.7% vs Florida State: 72.6%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +9.9%
Virginia Tech: 37.7% vs Florida State: 27.8%
Field Goal % (L5) +6.8%
Virginia Tech: 45.2% vs Florida State: 38.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
FSU Score 81.0 92
VT Score 103.0 69
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 37.7 / 27.8 50.0 / 52.0
Assists 12.4 / 12.4 11.0 / 15.0
Blocks 1.7 / 3.9 2.0 / 6.0
Field Goal % 45.2 / 38.3 44.0 / 62.0
Free Throw % 84.7 / 72.6 80.0 / 71.0
Rebounding 31.4 / 36.6 26.0 / 28.0
Steals 5.5 / 6.4 4.0 / 2.0
Turnovers 12.2 / 8.1 10.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
6%TICKETS94%
23%MONEY77%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
44%TICKETS56%
63%MONEY37%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
43%TICKETS57%
33%MONEY67%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
FSU
18-15-0 (54.6%)
Margin: 2.4 ATS +/-: -0.1
VT Advantage
19-13-0 (59.4%)
Margin: 3.9 ATS +/-: +1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
FSU Advantage
19-13-1 (59.4%)
Margin: 2.4 ATS +/-: -0.1
VT
17-14-1 (54.8%)
Margin: 3.9 ATS +/-: +1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
FSU
17-16-0
O: 51.5% / U: 48.5% Total +/-: -2.0
VT
17-15-0
O: 53.1% / U: 46.9% Total +/-: +3.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
VT
FSU
VT
FSU
ML
53% 17-15
64% 21-12
72% 23-9
59% 19-13
ATS
59% 19-13
55% 18-15
72% 23-9
59% 19-13
TTL
69% 22-10
48% 16-17
100% 32-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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