Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Spartans @ Lancers UPST @ LONG

SOUTH CAROLINA UPSTATE

SPARTANSUPST

11-15  |  Road

75
FINAL
Sat, Feb 14 • 3:00 PM ET
Joan Perry Brock Center
View Odds Details →

LONGWOOD

LANCERSLONG

13-14  |  Home

82
AI Model Win Probability
SPARTANS
100%
📊
LANCERS
0%
SPARTANS --
LANCERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
153.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.0
LONGWOOD
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.0 points (Longwood)
SpartansUPST (-3.5) 0 LancersLONG (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Spartans Cover

30.9%

Lancers Cover

69.1%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around LONG -5.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LONG)

UPST By 1-7 points

18.6%

UPST By 8-14 points

8.0%

LONG By 1-7 points

27.2%

LONG By 8-14 points

23.0%

AI Model Projected Score
74
SOUTH CAROLINA UPSTATE
79
LONGWOOD
Simulated Score
68
SOUTH CAROLINA UPSTATE
72
LONGWOOD
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Lancers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Lancers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Lancers (+17.5) Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Sim Lancers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u168.5 Win
Proj Total: 153.0
D
Sim u168.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 14, 2026 UPST @ LONG 75 - 82
Jan 29, 2026 LONG @ UPST 60 - 65
Mar 1, 2025 LONG @ UPST 83 - 66
Jan 25, 2025 UPST @ LONG 54 - 80
Feb 7, 2024 UPST @ LONG 69 - 64
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +59.8% more
South Carolina Upstate: 3.9 vs Longwood: 1.6
Turnovers (L5) +17.2% more
South Carolina Upstate: 15.0 vs Longwood: 12.4
Assists (L5) +8.8% more
South Carolina Upstate: 13.1 vs Longwood: 12.0
Free Throw % (L5) +5.0%
South Carolina Upstate: 68.4% vs Longwood: 63.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UPST Score 74.0 75
LONG Score 79.0 82
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 32.2 / 35.2 63.0 / 30.0
Assists 12.0 / 13.1 14.0 / 12.0
Blocks 1.6 / 3.9 4.0 / 9.0
Field Goal % 45.5 / 44.8 41.0 / 42.0
Free Throw % 63.3 / 68.4 67.0 / 57.0
Rebounding 36.0 / 34.9 36.0 / 41.0
Steals 6.6 / 7.0 10.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 12.4 / 15.0 14.0 / 21.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
4%TICKETS96%
20%MONEY80%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
38%TICKETS62%
42%MONEY58%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
60%TICKETS40%
94%MONEY6%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UPST
13-19-0 (40.6%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-: -0.6
LONG Advantage
16-16-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 3.6 ATS +/-: +0.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UPST
13-16-0 (44.8%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-: -0.6
LONG
13-16-0 (44.8%)
Margin: 3.6 ATS +/-: +0.1
⚖️ Over/Under
UPST
14-15-0
O: 48.3% / U: 51.7% Total +/-: -3.5
LONG
17-12-0
O: 58.6% / U: 41.4% Total +/-: +2.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LONG
UPST
LONG
UPST
ML
65% 20-11
61% 19-12
68% 21-10
83% 25-5
ATS
68% 21-10
61% 19-12
68% 21-10
83% 25-5
TTL
65% 20-11
52% 16-15
100% 31-0
100% 30-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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