Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Bulldogs @ Buccaneers SAM @ ETSU

SAMFORD

BULLDOGSSAM

14-12  |  Road

82
FINAL
Sat, Feb 14 • 12:00 PM ET
Freedom Hall (TN)
View Odds Details →

EAST TENNESSEE STATE

BUCCANEERSETSU

19-7  |  Home

72
AI Model Win Probability
BULLDOGS
0%
📊
BUCCANEERS
100%
BULLDOGS --
BUCCANEERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
138.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-24.0
SAMFORD
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +24.0 points (Samford)
BulldogsSAM (-3.5) 0 BuccaneersETSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bulldogs Cover

99.2%

Buccaneers Cover

0.8%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around SAM -24.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SAM)

SAM By 1-7 points

4.0%

SAM By 8-14 points

12.2%

ETSU By 1-7 points

0.6%

ETSU By 8-14 points

0.1%

AI Model Projected Score
81
SAMFORD
57
EAST TENNESSEE STATE
Simulated Score
72
SAMFORD
78
EAST TENNESSEE STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Bulldogs Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Buccaneers Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Bulldogs (-6.5) Win
Proj Spread: -24.0
D
Sim Buccaneers (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u147.5 Loss
Proj Total: 138.0
D
Sim u147.5 Win
Proj Total: 150.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 14, 2026 SAM @ ETSU 82 - 72
Jan 17, 2026 ETSU @ SAM 76 - 75
Feb 8, 2025 SAM @ ETSU 59 - 66
Jan 18, 2025 ETSU @ SAM 65 - 60
Mar 11, 2024 ETSU @ SAM 69 - 76
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +14.3% more
Samford: 10.3 vs East Tennessee State: 8.9
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +7.3%
Samford: 41.7% vs East Tennessee State: 34.4%
Field Goal % (L5) +6.3%
Samford: 52.7% vs East Tennessee State: 46.4%
Steals (L5) +115.8% more
East Tennessee State: 8.2 vs Samford: 3.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SAM Score 81.0 82
ETSU Score 57.0 72
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 34.4 / 41.7 25.0 / 29.0
Assists 15.3 / 14.6 15.0 / 15.0
Blocks 3.2 / 2.7 4.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 46.4 / 52.7 41.0 / 42.0
Free Throw % 79.1 / 71.6 77.0 / 77.0
Rebounding 35.6 / 36.5 34.0 / 38.0
Steals 8.2 / 3.8 7.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 8.9 / 10.3 12.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
6%TICKETS94%
9%MONEY91%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
43%TICKETS57%
58%MONEY42%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
59%TICKETS41%
37%MONEY63%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SAM
18-14-0 (56.3%)
Margin: 3.6 ATS +/-: +0.3
ETSU Advantage
23-11-0 (67.7%)
Margin: 8.3 ATS +/-: +0.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SAM Advantage
17-12-1 (58.6%)
Margin: 3.6 ATS +/-: +0.3
ETSU
14-18-0 (43.8%)
Margin: 8.3 ATS +/-: +0.5
⚖️ Over/Under
SAM
18-11-1
O: 62.1% / U: 37.9% Total +/-: +2.6
ETSU
17-15-0
O: 53.1% / U: 46.9% Total +/-: +2.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ETSU
SAM
ETSU
SAM
ML
42% 14-19
65% 20-11
70% 23-10
68% 21-10
ATS
58% 19-14
68% 21-10
70% 23-10
68% 21-10
TTL
45% 15-18
35% 11-20
100% 33-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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