NEVADA
WOLF PACKNEV
17-7 | Road
57
SAN DIEGO STATE
AZTECSSDSU
17-6 | Home
71
AI Model Win Probability
WOLF PACK
100%
AZTECS
0%
WOLF PACK
--
AZTECS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
133.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-19.0
SAN DIEGO STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +19.0 points (San Diego State)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around SDSU -19.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SDSU)
NEV By 1-7 points
2.2%
NEV By 8-14 points
0.4%
SDSU By 1-7 points
9.3%
SDSU By 8-14 points
20.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Nevada
57
NEVADA
San Diego State
76
SAN DIEGO STATE
Simulated Score
Nevada
68
NEVADA
San Diego State
72
SAN DIEGO STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Aztecs
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Aztecs
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Aztecs (-7.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -19.0
D
Sim
Aztecs (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u139.5
Win
Proj Total: 133.0
D
Sim
u139.5
Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 14, 2026
NEV @ SDSU
57 - 71
Jan 6, 2026
SDSU @ NEV
73 - 68
Mar 8, 2025
NEV @ SDSU
61 - 80
Jan 25, 2025
SDSU @ NEV
69 - 50
Feb 9, 2024
SDSU @ NEV
66 - 70
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+67.2% more
San Diego State: 10.2
vs
Nevada: 6.1
Blocks (L5)
+63.6% more
San Diego State: 4.8
vs
Nevada: 2.9
Turnovers (L5)
+20.3% more
San Diego State: 9.7
vs
Nevada: 8.1
Field Goal % (L5)
+6.2%
San Diego State: 51.0%
vs
Nevada: 44.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
NEV Score
57.0
57
SDSU Score
76.0
71
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
31.7 / 38.5
32.0 / 25.0
Assists
14.9 / 14.6
15.0 / 7.0
Blocks
4.8 / 2.9
8.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
51.0 / 44.9
43.0 / 33.0
Free Throw %
72.7 / 74.0
94.0 / 74.0
Rebounding
31.9 / 36.0
30.0 / 35.0
Steals
10.2 / 6.1
7.0 / 7.0
Turnovers
9.7 / 8.1
10.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NEV
24-13-0
(64.9%)
Margin: 4.5
ATS +/-: +1.2
SDSU
Advantage
22-11-0
(66.7%)
Margin: 7.2
ATS +/-: -0.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NEV
Advantage
22-15-0
(59.5%)
Margin: 4.5
ATS +/-: +1.2
SDSU
15-16-0
(48.4%)
Margin: 7.2
ATS +/-: -0.7
⚖️ Over/Under
NEV
21-16-0
O: 56.8% / U: 43.2%
Total +/-: +2.7
SDSU
15-16-0
O: 48.4% / U: 51.6%
Total +/-: +5.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SDSU
NEV
SDSU
NEV
ML
62%
20-12
62%
23-14
72%
23-9
73%
27-10
ATS
69%
22-10
73%
27-10
72%
23-9
73%
27-10
TTL
75%
24-8
49%
18-19
100%
32-0
100%
37-0
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