Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Cavaliers @ Buckeyes UVA @ OSU

VIRGINIA

CAVALIERSUVA

21-3  |  Road

70
FINAL
Sat, Feb 14 • 8:00 PM ET
Bridgestone Arena
View Odds Details →

OHIO STATE

BUCKEYESOSU

16-8  |  Home

66
AI Model Win Probability
CAVALIERS
100%
📊
BUCKEYES
0%
CAVALIERS --
BUCKEYES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
175.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
OHIO STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Ohio State)
CavaliersUVA (-3.5) 0 BuckeyesOSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cavaliers Cover

38.2%

Buckeyes Cover

61.8%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around OSU -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (OSU)

UVA By 1-7 points

21.6%

UVA By 8-14 points

10.7%

OSU By 1-7 points

27.2%

OSU By 8-14 points

20.1%

AI Model Projected Score
86
VIRGINIA
89
OHIO STATE
Simulated Score
68
VIRGINIA
72
OHIO STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Buckeyes Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Buckeyes Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Buckeyes (+5.5) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Sim Buckeyes (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o145.5 Loss
Proj Total: 175.0
D
Sim u145.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 14, 2026 UVA @ OSU 70 - 66
Key Model Drivers
Free Throw % (L5) +18.5%
Ohio State: 84.0% vs Virginia: 65.5%
Field Goal % (L5) +5.3%
Ohio State: 46.9% vs Virginia: 41.6%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +3.7%
Ohio State: 34.6% vs Virginia: 30.9%
Blocks (L5) +37.8% more
Virginia: 4.7 vs Ohio State: 2.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UVA Score 86.0 70
OSU Score 89.0 66
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 34.6 / 30.9 43.0 / 33.0
Assists 13.2 / 15.8 9.0 / 9.0
Blocks 2.9 / 4.7 3.0 / 6.0
Field Goal % 46.9 / 41.6 45.0 / 42.0
Free Throw % 84.0 / 65.5 67.0 / 69.0
Rebounding 31.5 / 41.8 26.0 / 41.0
Steals 4.7 / 6.7 7.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 10.6 / 11.3 8.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
81%TICKETS19%
69%MONEY31%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
63%TICKETS37%
49%MONEY51%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
64%TICKETS36%
27%MONEY73%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UVA Advantage
30-6-0 (83.3%)
Margin: 11.6 ATS +/-: +1.0
OSU
21-13-0 (61.8%)
Margin: 6.7 ATS +/-: +1.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UVA
17-17-2 (50.0%)
Margin: 11.6 ATS +/-: +1.0
OSU Advantage
17-16-1 (51.5%)
Margin: 6.7 ATS +/-: +1.8
⚖️ Over/Under
UVA
17-19-0
O: 47.2% / U: 52.8% Total +/-: +0.6
OSU
16-18-0
O: 47.1% / U: 52.9% Total +/-: -1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
OSU
UVA
OSU
UVA
ML
53% 18-16
67% 24-12
73% 24-9
72% 26-10
ATS
59% 20-14
75% 27-9
73% 24-9
72% 26-10
TTL
56% 19-15
53% 19-17
100% 33-0
100% 36-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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