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MISSISSIPPI STATE

BULLDOGSMSST

11-13  |  Road

90
FINAL
Sat, Feb 14 • 6:30 PM ET
The Sandy and John Black Pavilion at Ole Miss
View Odds Details →

OLE MISS

REBELSMISS

11-13  |  Home

78
AI Model Win Probability
BULLDOGS
0%
📊
REBELS
100%
BULLDOGS --
REBELS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
125.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-29.0
MISSISSIPPI STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +29.0 points (Mississippi State)
BulldogsMSST (-3.5) 0 RebelsMISS (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bulldogs Cover

99.8%

Rebels Cover

0.2%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around MSST -29.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MSST)

MSST By 1-7 points

1.4%

MSST By 8-14 points

5.8%

MISS By 1-7 points

0.1%

MISS By 8-14 points

0.0%

AI Model Projected Score
77
MISSISSIPPI STATE
48
OLE MISS
Simulated Score
68
MISSISSIPPI STATE
73
OLE MISS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Bulldogs Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Rebels Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Bulldogs (-3.5) Win
Proj Spread: -29.0
D
Sim Rebels (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u145.5 Loss
Proj Total: 125.0
D
Sim u145.5 Win
Proj Total: 141.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 14, 2026 MSST @ MISS 90 - 78
Jan 17, 2026 MISS @ MSST 68 - 67
Feb 15, 2025 MSST @ MISS 81 - 71
Jan 18, 2025 MISS @ MSST 81 - 84
Feb 21, 2024 MISS @ MSST 71 - 83
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +32.5% more
Mississippi State: 12.2 vs Ole Miss: 8.3
Blocks (L5) +15.1% more
Mississippi State: 4.2 vs Ole Miss: 3.6
Field Goal % (L5) +1.9%
Mississippi State: 43.0% vs Ole Miss: 41.1%
Free Throw % (L5) +7.1%
Ole Miss: 69.4% vs Mississippi State: 62.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MSST Score 77.0 90
MISS Score 48.0 78
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 32.8 / 30.1 31.0 / 46.0
Assists 12.5 / 11.7 19.0 / 18.0
Blocks 3.6 / 4.2 4.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 41.1 / 43.0 42.0 / 58.0
Free Throw % 69.4 / 62.3 76.0 / 59.0
Rebounding 32.9 / 35.2 35.0 / 38.0
Steals 5.4 / 5.2 6.0 / 3.0
Turnovers 8.3 / 12.2 6.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
11%TICKETS89%
31%MONEY69%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
36%TICKETS64%
49%MONEY51%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
71%TICKETS29%
68%MONEY32%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MSST Advantage
13-19-0 (40.6%)
Margin: -4.2 ATS +/-: -4.4
MISS
--
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MSST Advantage
10-22-0 (31.3%)
Margin: -4.2 ATS +/-: -4.4
MISS
--
⚖️ Over/Under
MSST
16-16-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +3.1
MISS
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MISS
MSST
MISS
MSST
ML
48% 16-17
66% 21-11
52% 17-16
55% 17-14
ATS
61% 20-13
56% 18-14
52% 17-16
55% 17-14
TTL
64% 21-12
59% 19-13
100% 33-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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