Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Jaguars @ Red Wolves USA @ ARST

SOUTH ALABAMA

JAGUARSUSA

18-7  |  Road

92
FINAL
Sat, Feb 14 • 3:00 PM ET
First National Bank Arena
View Odds Details →

ARKANSAS STATE

RED WOLVESARST

16-10  |  Home

88
AI Model Win Probability
JAGUARS
100%
📊
RED WOLVES
0%
JAGUARS --
RED WOLVES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
138.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-34.0
ARKANSAS STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +34.0 points (Arkansas State)
JaguarsUSA (-3.5) 0 Red WolvesARST (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Jaguars Cover

0.0%

Red Wolves Cover

100.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around ARST -34.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ARST)

USA By 1-7 points

0.0%

USA By 8-14 points

0.0%

ARST By 1-7 points

0.4%

ARST By 8-14 points

2.2%

AI Model Projected Score
52
SOUTH ALABAMA
86
ARKANSAS STATE
Simulated Score
71
SOUTH ALABAMA
75
ARKANSAS STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Red Wolves Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Red Wolves Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Red Wolves (-7.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -34.0
D
Sim Red Wolves (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u149.5 Loss
Proj Total: 138.0
D
Sim u149.5 Win
Proj Total: 146.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 14, 2026 USA @ ARST 92 - 88
Jan 15, 2026 ARST @ USA 87 - 91
Mar 9, 2025 ARST @ USA 74 - 71
Feb 19, 2025 USA @ ARST 60 - 56
Jan 9, 2025 ARST @ USA 62 - 76
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +98.3% more
Arkansas State: 3.5 vs South Alabama: 1.8
Assists (L5) +67.3% more
Arkansas State: 19.1 vs South Alabama: 11.4
Turnovers (L5) +59.3% more
Arkansas State: 12.7 vs South Alabama: 8.0
Rebounding (L5) +44.5% more
Arkansas State: 45.8 vs South Alabama: 31.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
USA Score 52.0 92
ARST Score 86.0 88
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 37.7 / 38.0 39.0 / 44.0
Assists 19.1 / 11.4 22.0 / 16.0
Blocks 3.5 / 1.8 3.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 47.7 / 48.9 40.0 / 39.0
Free Throw % 60.9 / 60.1 67.0 / 77.0
Rebounding 45.8 / 31.7 54.0 / 37.0
Steals 9.3 / 9.2 5.0 / 12.0
Turnovers 12.7 / 8.0 18.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
4%TICKETS96%
21%MONEY79%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
60%TICKETS40%
70%MONEY30%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
51%TICKETS49%
33%MONEY67%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
USA Advantage
21-12-0 (63.6%)
Margin: 4.3 ATS +/-: +1.1
ARST
20-12-0 (62.5%)
Margin: 5.8 ATS +/-: -0.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
USA Advantage
17-14-0 (54.8%)
Margin: 4.3 ATS +/-: +1.1
ARST
15-15-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 5.8 ATS +/-: -0.5
⚖️ Over/Under
USA
16-15-0
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4% Total +/-: +2.3
ARST
15-14-1
O: 51.7% / U: 48.3% Total +/-: +2.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ARST
USA
ARST
USA
ML
48% 15-16
47% 15-17
53% 16-14
57% 17-13
ATS
58% 18-13
53% 17-15
53% 16-14
57% 17-13
TTL
61% 19-12
66% 21-11
100% 30-0
100% 30-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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