Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Cardinals @ Bears LOU @ BAY

LOUISVILLE

CARDINALSLOU

18-6  |  Road

82
FINAL
Sat, Feb 14 • 4:00 PM ET
Dickies Arena
View Odds Details →

BAYLOR

BEARSBAY

13-11  |  Home

71
AI Model Win Probability
CARDINALS
100%
📊
BEARS
0%
CARDINALS --
BEARS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
136.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-40.0
BAYLOR
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +40.0 points (Baylor)
CardinalsLOU (-3.5) 0 BearsBAY (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cardinals Cover

0.0%

Bears Cover

100.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around BAY -40.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BAY)

LOU By 1-7 points

0.0%

LOU By 8-14 points

0.0%

BAY By 1-7 points

0.1%

BAY By 8-14 points

0.5%

AI Model Projected Score
48
LOUISVILLE
88
BAYLOR
Simulated Score
68
LOUISVILLE
75
BAYLOR
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Bears Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Bears Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Bears (+6.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -40.0
D
Sim Bears (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u161.5 Win
Proj Total: 136.0
D
Sim u161.5 Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 14, 2026 LOU @ BAY 82 - 71
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +13.3% more
Baylor: 3.7 vs Louisville: 3.3
Assists (L5) +25.2% more
Louisville: 19.0 vs Baylor: 14.2
Rebounding (L5) +15.6% more
Louisville: 38.3 vs Baylor: 32.4
Field Goal % (L5) +3.0%
Louisville: 51.4% vs Baylor: 48.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LOU Score 48.0 82
BAY Score 88.0 71
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 40.1 / 42.2 9.0 / 44.0
Assists 14.2 / 19.0 10.0 / 18.0
Blocks 3.7 / 3.3 5.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 48.4 / 51.4 37.0 / 56.0
Free Throw % 73.8 / 76.5 83.0 / 90.0
Rebounding 32.4 / 38.3 30.0 / 29.0
Steals 5.3 / 5.7 7.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 11.5 / 11.0 9.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
90%TICKETS10%
63%MONEY37%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
57%TICKETS43%
77%MONEY23%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
43%TICKETS57%
81%MONEY19%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LOU Advantage
24-11-0 (68.6%)
Margin: 11.7 ATS +/-: +0.3
BAY
17-17-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 5.3 ATS +/-: -1.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LOU Advantage
17-18-0 (48.6%)
Margin: 11.7 ATS +/-: +0.3
BAY
15-18-0 (45.5%)
Margin: 5.3 ATS +/-: -1.1
⚖️ Over/Under
LOU
15-20-0
O: 42.9% / U: 57.1% Total +/-: -3.6
BAY
17-16-0
O: 51.5% / U: 48.5% Total +/-: +3.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BAY
LOU
BAY
LOU
ML
58% 19-14
63% 22-13
53% 17-15
71% 24-10
ATS
58% 19-14
71% 25-10
53% 17-15
71% 24-10
TTL
45% 15-18
63% 22-13
100% 32-0
100% 34-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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