Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Wolves @ Bears WGA @ CARK

WEST GEORGIA

WOLVESWGA

12-13  |  Road

62
FINAL
Sat, Feb 14 • 2:00 PM ET
Farris Center
View Odds Details →

CENTRAL ARKANSAS

BEARSCARK

16-10  |  Home

79
AI Model Win Probability
WOLVES
100%
📊
BEARS
0%
WOLVES --
BEARS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
126.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-26.0
CENTRAL ARKANSAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +26.0 points (Central Arkansas)
WolvesWGA (-3.5) 0 BearsCARK (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Wolves Cover

0.5%

Bears Cover

99.5%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around CARK -26.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CARK)

WGA By 1-7 points

0.4%

WGA By 8-14 points

0.0%

CARK By 1-7 points

2.7%

CARK By 8-14 points

9.3%

AI Model Projected Score
50
WEST GEORGIA
76
CENTRAL ARKANSAS
Simulated Score
68
WEST GEORGIA
75
CENTRAL ARKANSAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Bears Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Bears Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Bears (-8.5) Win
Proj Spread: -26.0
D
Sim Bears (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u165.5 Win
Proj Total: 126.0
D
Sim u165.5 Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 14, 2026 WGA @ CARK 62 - 79
Jan 22, 2026 CARK @ WGA 86 - 65
Feb 20, 2025 CARK @ WGA 82 - 71
Jan 29, 2025 WGA @ CARK 70 - 75
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +67.0% more
Central Arkansas: 10.4 vs West Georgia: 6.3
Assists (L5) +36.4% more
Central Arkansas: 17.1 vs West Georgia: 12.5
Turnovers (L5) +16.9% more
Central Arkansas: 8.9 vs West Georgia: 7.6
Blocks (L5) +40.0% more
West Georgia: 4.6 vs Central Arkansas: 2.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
WGA Score 50.0 62
CARK Score 76.0 79
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 37.3 / 38.3 39.0 / 29.0
Assists 17.1 / 12.5 15.0 / 17.0
Blocks 2.7 / 4.6 1.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 47.0 / 46.2 43.0 / 44.0
Free Throw % 70.4 / 73.4 82.0 / 50.0
Rebounding 31.9 / 36.8 40.0 / 34.0
Steals 10.4 / 6.3 10.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 8.9 / 7.6 9.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
2%TICKETS98%
24%MONEY76%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
36%TICKETS64%
59%MONEY41%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
40%TICKETS60%
72%MONEY28%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WGA
15-17-0 (46.9%)
Margin: -3.0 ATS +/-: +1.1
CARK Advantage
22-12-0 (64.7%)
Margin: 6.1 ATS +/-: +5.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WGA Advantage
21-9-0 (70.0%)
Margin: -3.0 ATS +/-: +1.1
CARK
19-10-3 (65.5%)
Margin: 6.1 ATS +/-: +5.7
⚖️ Over/Under
WGA
16-14-0
O: 53.3% / U: 46.7% Total +/-: +2.2
CARK
16-16-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +3.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CARK
WGA
CARK
WGA
ML
67% 22-11
58% 18-13
70% 23-10
61% 19-12
ATS
61% 20-13
71% 22-9
70% 23-10
61% 19-12
TTL
50% 16-16-1
55% 17-14
100% 33-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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