Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Aggies @ Commodores TA&M @ VAN

TEXAS A&M

AGGIESTA&M

17-7  |  Road

69
FINAL
Sat, Feb 14 • 1:00 PM ET
Memorial Gymnasium (TN)
View Odds Details →

VANDERBILT

COMMODORESVAN

20-4  |  Home

82
AI Model Win Probability
AGGIES
100%
📊
COMMODORES
0%
AGGIES --
COMMODORES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
166.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-14.0
VANDERBILT
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +14.0 points (Vanderbilt)
AggiesTA&M (-3.5) 0 CommodoresVAN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Aggies Cover

8.1%

Commodores Cover

91.9%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around VAN -14.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (VAN)

TA&M By 1-7 points

5.8%

TA&M By 8-14 points

1.4%

VAN By 1-7 points

16.9%

VAN By 8-14 points

26.2%

AI Model Projected Score
76
TEXAS A&M
90
VANDERBILT
Simulated Score
65
TEXAS A&M
78
VANDERBILT
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Commodores Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Commodores Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Commodores (-2.5) Win
Proj Spread: -14.0
D
Sim Commodores (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o150.5 Win
Proj Total: 166.0
D
Sim u150.5 Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 14, 2026 TA&M @ VAN 69 - 82
Feb 26, 2025 VAN @ TA&M 86 - 84
Feb 13, 2024 TA&M @ VAN 73 - 74
Mar 11, 2023 VAN @ TA&M 75 - 87
Jan 28, 2023 VAN @ TA&M 66 - 72
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +55.4% more
Vanderbilt: 4.9 vs Texas A&M: 3.1
Free Throw % (L5) +3.4%
Vanderbilt: 82.5% vs Texas A&M: 79.1%
Assists (L5) +25.8% more
Texas A&M: 18.5 vs Vanderbilt: 13.7
Rebounding (L5) +10.9% more
Texas A&M: 35.3 vs Vanderbilt: 31.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TA&M Score 76.0 69
VAN Score 90.0 82
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 35.9 / 38.4 31.0 / 28.0
Assists 13.7 / 18.5 14.0 / 10.0
Blocks 4.9 / 3.1 3.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 45.5 / 44.3 44.0 / 39.0
Free Throw % 82.5 / 79.1 79.0 / 50.0
Rebounding 31.5 / 35.3 40.0 / 39.0
Steals 5.6 / 5.6 6.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 9.4 / 8.9 9.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TA&M
22-12-0 (64.7%)
Margin: 7.1 ATS +/-: +0.6
VAN Advantage
27-9-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 10.8 ATS +/-: +0.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TA&M Advantage
19-15-0 (55.9%)
Margin: 7.1 ATS +/-: +0.6
VAN
18-18-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 10.8 ATS +/-: +0.7
⚖️ Over/Under
TA&M
20-14-0
O: 58.8% / U: 41.2% Total +/-: +2.0
VAN
17-19-0
O: 47.2% / U: 52.8% Total +/-: +1.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
VAN
TA&M
VAN
TA&M
ML
69% 25-11
67% 20-10
56% 18-14
54% 15-13
ATS
78% 28-8
67% 20-10
56% 18-14
54% 15-13
TTL
58% 21-15
70% 21-9
100% 32-0
100% 28-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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