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MIAMI

HURRICANESMIA

19-5  |  Road

77
FINAL
Sat, Feb 14 • 4:00 PM ET
Lenovo Center
View Odds Details →

NC STATE

WOLFPACKNCSU

18-7  |  Home

76
AI Model Win Probability
HURRICANES
100%
📊
WOLFPACK
0%
HURRICANES --
WOLFPACK --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
147.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.0
NC STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.0 points (NC State)
HurricanesMIA (-3.5) 0 WolfpackNCSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Hurricanes Cover

30.9%

Wolfpack Cover

69.1%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around NCSU -5.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NCSU)

MIA By 1-7 points

18.6%

MIA By 8-14 points

8.0%

NCSU By 1-7 points

27.2%

NCSU By 8-14 points

23.0%

AI Model Projected Score
71
MIAMI
76
NC STATE
Simulated Score
71
MIAMI
76
NC STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Wolfpack Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Wolfpack Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Wolfpack (+6.5) Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Sim Wolfpack (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u158.5 Win
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Sim u158.5 Win
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 14, 2026 MIA @ NCSU 77 - 76
Mar 8, 2025 NCSU @ MIA 70 - 72
Jan 30, 2024 MIA @ NCSU 68 - 74
Jan 14, 2023 MIA @ NCSU 81 - 83
Dec 10, 2022 NCSU @ MIA 73 - 80
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +21.3% more
NC State: 7.5 vs Miami: 6.2
Free Throw % (L5) +14.3%
NC State: 77.7% vs Miami: 63.4%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +3.7%
NC State: 34.6% vs Miami: 31.0%
Blocks (L5) +35.0% more
Miami: 4.0 vs NC State: 2.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MIA Score 71.0 77
NCSU Score 76.0 76
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 34.6 / 31.0 38.0 / 18.0
Assists 14.4 / 14.5 12.0 / 8.0
Blocks 2.6 / 4.0 8.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 46.7 / 50.3 49.0 / 48.0
Free Throw % 77.7 / 63.4 87.0 / 50.0
Rebounding 31.3 / 38.6 29.0 / 40.0
Steals 7.5 / 6.2 6.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 9.4 / 10.2 10.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
16%TICKETS84%
39%MONEY61%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
50%TICKETS50%
31%MONEY69%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
60%TICKETS40%
65%MONEY35%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIA Advantage
26-9-0 (74.3%)
Margin: 10.3 ATS +/-: +1.3
NCSU
20-14-0 (58.8%)
Margin: 6.9 ATS +/-: -1.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIA Advantage
18-15-1 (54.6%)
Margin: 10.3 ATS +/-: +1.3
NCSU
16-17-1 (48.5%)
Margin: 6.9 ATS +/-: -1.1
⚖️ Over/Under
MIA
21-12-1
O: 63.6% / U: 36.4% Total +/-: +0.4
NCSU
21-13-0
O: 61.8% / U: 38.2% Total +/-: +6.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NCSU
MIA
NCSU
MIA
ML
59% 20-14
63% 22-13
55% 18-15
64% 21-12
ATS
71% 24-10
63% 22-13
55% 18-15
64% 21-12
TTL
71% 24-10
63% 22-13
100% 33-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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