SACRAMENTO STATE
HORNETSSAC
9-15 | Road
74
NORTHERN ARIZONA
LUMBERJACKSNAU
9-17 | Home
79
AI Model Win Probability
HORNETS
0%
LUMBERJACKS
100%
HORNETS
--
LUMBERJACKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
160.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-24.0
SACRAMENTO STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +24.0 points (Sacramento State)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around SAC -24.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SAC)
SAC By 1-7 points
4.0%
SAC By 8-14 points
12.2%
NAU By 1-7 points
0.6%
NAU By 8-14 points
0.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Sacramento State
92
SACRAMENTO STATE
Northern Arizona
68
NORTHERN ARIZONA
Simulated Score
Sacramento State
68
SACRAMENTO STATE
Northern Arizona
71
NORTHERN ARIZONA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Hornets
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Lumberjacks
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Hornets (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -24.0
D
Sim
Lumberjacks (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o154.5
Loss
Proj Total: 160.0
D
Sim
u154.5
Win
Proj Total: 139.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 14, 2026
SAC @ NAU
74 - 79
Jan 15, 2026
NAU @ SAC
69 - 83
Feb 15, 2025
NAU @ SAC
65 - 61
Jan 16, 2025
SAC @ NAU
53 - 77
Feb 15, 2024
NAU @ SAC
73 - 58
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+42.6% more
Sacramento State: 8.0
vs
Northern Arizona: 4.6
Rebounding (L5)
+21.1% more
Sacramento State: 31.0
vs
Northern Arizona: 24.4
Turnovers (L5)
+18.7% more
Sacramento State: 9.5
vs
Northern Arizona: 7.7
Free Throw % (L5)
+9.2%
Sacramento State: 81.5%
vs
Northern Arizona: 72.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SAC Score
92.0
74
NAU Score
68.0
79
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
35.1 / 39.5
31.0 / 19.0
Assists
12.1 / 12.2
15.0 / 6.0
Blocks
2.3 / 1.6
2.0 / 1.0
Field Goal %
45.6 / 43.0
49.0 / 45.0
Free Throw %
72.3 / 81.5
64.0 / 77.0
Rebounding
24.4 / 31.0
30.0 / 33.0
Steals
4.6 / 8.0
8.0 / 5.0
Turnovers
7.7 / 9.5
12.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SAC
Advantage
10-21-0
(32.3%)
Margin: -4.3
ATS +/-: 0.0
NAU
10-22-0
(31.3%)
Margin: -5.1
ATS +/-: -2.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SAC
13-15-0
(46.4%)
Margin: -4.3
ATS +/-: 0.0
NAU
Advantage
14-15-0
(48.3%)
Margin: -5.1
ATS +/-: -2.7
⚖️ Over/Under
SAC
15-13-0
O: 53.6% / U: 46.4%
Total +/-: +1.6
NAU
11-18-0
O: 37.9% / U: 62.1%
Total +/-: -2.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NAU
SAC
NAU
SAC
ML
62%
20-12
57%
17-13
81%
26-6
87%
26-4
ATS
62%
20-12
73%
22-8
81%
26-6
87%
27-4
TTL
66%
21-11
60%
18-12
100%
32-0
100%
31-0
Contextual Game News
Ashton Daniels Erupts for Five Rushing Scores as Florida State C…
Florida State Crushes Virginia 38-7 as Ashton Daniels Sets Recor…
Lions Edge Jets 31-24: Gibbs' Hat Trick, TeSlaa's Breakout, and …
Princeton Basketball Standout A'mire Gill Pledges to Miami (Ohio…
Nuggets Eye Ryan Nembhard as Potential Two-Way Steal if Hornets …