Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Boilermakers @ Hawkeyes PUR @ IOWA

PURDUE

BOILERMAKERSPUR

20-4  |  Road

78
FINAL
Sat, Feb 14 • 5:00 PM ET
Carver-Hawkeye Arena
View Odds Details →

IOWA

HAWKEYESIOWA

18-6  |  Home

57
AI Model Win Probability
BOILERMAKERS
0%
📊
HAWKEYES
100%
BOILERMAKERS --
HAWKEYES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
110.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-8.0
PURDUE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +8.0 points (Purdue)
BoilermakersPUR (-3.5) 0 HawkeyesIOWA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Boilermakers Cover

78.8%

Hawkeyes Cover

21.2%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around PUR -8.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PUR)

PUR By 1-7 points

25.3%

PUR By 8-14 points

26.2%

IOWA By 1-7 points

13.7%

IOWA By 8-14 points

4.8%

AI Model Projected Score
59
PURDUE
51
IOWA
Simulated Score
75
PURDUE
72
IOWA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Boilermakers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Boilermakers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Boilermakers (+1.5) Win
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Sim Boilermakers (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u141.5 Win
Proj Total: 110.0
D
Sim u141.5 Win
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 14, 2026 PUR @ IOWA 78 - 57
Jan 14, 2026 IOWA @ PUR 72 - 79
Feb 4, 2025 PUR @ IOWA 90 - 81
Jan 20, 2024 PUR @ IOWA 84 - 70
Dec 4, 2023 IOWA @ PUR 68 - 87
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +42.4% more
Purdue: 1.8 vs Iowa: 1.0
Turnovers (L5) +35.4% more
Purdue: 10.2 vs Iowa: 6.6
Rebounding (L5) +31.1% more
Purdue: 39.2 vs Iowa: 27.0
Assists (L5) +25.1% more
Purdue: 18.0 vs Iowa: 13.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
PUR Score 59.0 78
IOWA Score 51.0 57
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 33.6 / 33.3 27.0 / 40.0
Assists 13.5 / 18.0 12.0 / 20.0
Blocks 1.0 / 1.8 1.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 47.8 / 45.5 38.0 / 47.0
Free Throw % 76.4 / 67.8 65.0 / 80.0
Rebounding 27.0 / 39.2 30.0 / 38.0
Steals 6.0 / 5.7 3.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 6.6 / 10.2 6.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
80%TICKETS20%
62%MONEY38%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
78%TICKETS22%
61%MONEY39%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
83%TICKETS17%
79%MONEY21%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PUR Advantage
30-9-0 (76.9%)
Margin: 11.1 ATS +/-: -0.1
IOWA
24-13-0 (64.9%)
Margin: 8.3 ATS +/-: +1.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PUR
17-22-0 (43.6%)
Margin: 11.1 ATS +/-: -0.1
IOWA Advantage
21-16-0 (56.8%)
Margin: 8.3 ATS +/-: +1.1
⚖️ Over/Under
PUR
21-18-0
O: 53.8% / U: 46.2% Total +/-: +1.4
IOWA
20-17-0
O: 54.1% / U: 46.0% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
IOWA
PUR
IOWA
PUR
ML
59% 22-15
67% 26-13
78% 28-8
66% 25-13
ATS
76% 28-9
64% 25-14
78% 28-8
66% 25-13
TTL
57% 21-16
51% 20-19
100% 36-0
100% 38-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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