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TARLETON STATE

TEXANSTAR

12-12  |  Road

59
FINAL
Sat, Feb 14 • 4:00 PM ET
Moody Coliseum (Abilene)
View Odds Details →

ABILENE CHRISTIAN

WILDCATSACU

11-13  |  Home

73
AI Model Win Probability
TEXANS
0%
📊
WILDCATS
100%
TEXANS --
WILDCATS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
158.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-42.0
TARLETON STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +42.0 points (Tarleton State)
TexansTAR (-3.5) 0 WildcatsACU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Texans Cover

100.0%

Wildcats Cover

0.0%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around TAR -42.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TAR)

TAR By 1-7 points

0.0%

TAR By 8-14 points

0.3%

ACU By 1-7 points

0.0%

ACU By 8-14 points

0.0%

AI Model Projected Score
100
TARLETON STATE
58
ABILENE CHRISTIAN
Simulated Score
70
TARLETON STATE
73
ABILENE CHRISTIAN
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Texans Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Wildcats Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Texans (-9.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -42.0
D
Sim Wildcats (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o155.5 Loss
Proj Total: 158.0
D
Sim u155.5 Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 11, 2026 TAR @ ACU 78 - 84
Feb 16, 2026 ACU @ TAR 62 - 65
Feb 14, 2026 TAR @ ACU 59 - 73
Jan 8, 2026 ACU @ TAR 84 - 80
Feb 27, 2025 ACU @ TAR 52 - 67
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +42.0% more
Tarleton State: 3.9 vs Abilene Christian: 2.2
Steals (L5) +13.3% more
Tarleton State: 10.0 vs Abilene Christian: 8.7
Turnovers (L5) +12.4% more
Tarleton State: 14.8 vs Abilene Christian: 13.0
Free Throw % (L5) +10.1%
Tarleton State: 75.4% vs Abilene Christian: 65.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TAR Score 100.0 59
ACU Score 58.0 73
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 31.5 / 22.8 35.0 / 33.0
Assists 11.9 / 7.3 13.0 / 11.0
Blocks 2.2 / 3.9 3.0 / 6.0
Field Goal % 39.4 / 41.5 43.0 / 47.0
Free Throw % 65.4 / 75.4 81.0 / 55.0
Rebounding 31.7 / 32.1 37.0 / 24.0
Steals 8.7 / 10.0 10.0 / 9.0
Turnovers 13.0 / 14.8 22.0 / 21.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TAR Advantage
14-18-0 (43.8%)
Margin: 1.1 ATS +/-: 0.0
ACU
14-19-0 (42.4%)
Margin: -2.1 ATS +/-: -2.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TAR Advantage
14-14-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 1.1 ATS +/-: 0.0
ACU
13-16-1 (44.8%)
Margin: -2.1 ATS +/-: -2.6
⚖️ Over/Under
TAR
15-13-0
O: 53.6% / U: 46.4% Total +/-: +4.8
ACU
17-13-0
O: 56.7% / U: 43.3% Total +/-: +1.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ACU
TAR
ACU
TAR
ML
67% 22-11
59% 19-13
70% 23-10
66% 21-11
ATS
55% 18-15
69% 22-10
70% 23-10
66% 21-11
TTL
58% 19-14
50% 16-16
100% 33-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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