Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Mountaineers @ Dukes APP @ JMU

APP STATE

MOUNTAINEERSAPP

18-9  |  Road

58
FINAL
Sat, Feb 14 • 4:00 PM ET
Atlantic Union Bank Center
View Odds Details →

JAMES MADISON

DUKESJMU

13-13  |  Home

69
AI Model Win Probability
MOUNTAINEERS
100%
📊
DUKES
0%
MOUNTAINEERS --
DUKES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
170.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-28.0
JAMES MADISON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +28.0 points (James Madison)
MountaineersAPP (-3.5) 0 DukesJMU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Mountaineers Cover

0.3%

Dukes Cover

99.7%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around JMU -28.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (JMU)

APP By 1-7 points

0.2%

APP By 8-14 points

0.0%

JMU By 1-7 points

1.7%

JMU By 8-14 points

6.8%

AI Model Projected Score
71
APP STATE
99
JAMES MADISON
Simulated Score
72
APP STATE
75
JAMES MADISON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Dukes Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Dukes Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Dukes (+1.5) Win
Proj Spread: -28.0
D
Sim Dukes (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o134.5 Loss
Proj Total: 170.0
D
Sim u134.5 Win
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 14, 2026 APP @ JMU 58 - 69
Jan 15, 2026 JMU @ APP 65 - 80
Jan 18, 2025 APP @ JMU 58 - 50
Jan 11, 2025 JMU @ APP 66 - 86
Jan 27, 2024 JMU @ APP 76 - 82
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +49.2% more
James Madison: 13.2 vs App State: 8.9
Assists (L5) +12.0% more
James Madison: 12.3 vs App State: 11.0
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +5.6%
James Madison: 34.3% vs App State: 28.8%
Field Goal % (L5) +3.3%
James Madison: 46.3% vs App State: 43.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
APP Score 71.0 58
JMU Score 99.0 69
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 34.3 / 28.8 36.0 / 21.0
Assists 12.3 / 11.0 13.0 / 7.0
Blocks 4.8 / 4.9 1.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 46.3 / 43.0 42.0 / 35.0
Free Throw % 68.6 / 68.2 65.0 / 58.0
Rebounding 37.7 / 41.0 37.0 / 40.0
Steals 5.5 / 6.7 6.0 / 1.0
Turnovers 13.2 / 8.9 5.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
65%TICKETS35%
80%MONEY20%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
67%TICKETS33%
59%MONEY41%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
79%TICKETS21%
54%MONEY46%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
APP Advantage
19-13-0 (59.4%)
Margin: 6.0 ATS +/-: +0.9
JMU
18-15-0 (54.6%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-: -0.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
APP Advantage
16-13-1 (55.2%)
Margin: 6.0 ATS +/-: +0.9
JMU
13-19-0 (40.6%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-: -0.5
⚖️ Over/Under
APP
12-18-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -1.2
JMU
15-16-1
O: 48.4% / U: 51.6% Total +/-: +3.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
JMU
APP
JMU
APP
ML
64% 21-12
62% 20-12
66% 21-11
59% 19-13
ATS
67% 22-11
59% 19-13
66% 21-11
59% 19-13
TTL
67% 22-11
69% 22-10
100% 32-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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