Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Horned Frogs @ Cowboys TCU @ OKST

TCU

HORNED FROGSTCU

15-9  |  Road

95
FINAL
Sat, Feb 14 • 12:00 PM ET
Gallagher-Iba Arena
View Odds Details →

OKLAHOMA STATE

COWBOYSOKST

16-8  |  Home

92
AI Model Win Probability
HORNED FROGS
0%
📊
COWBOYS
100%
HORNED FROGS --
COWBOYS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
129.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
TCU
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (TCU)
Horned FrogsTCU (-3.5) 0 CowboysOKST (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Horned Frogs Cover

61.8%

Cowboys Cover

38.2%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around TCU -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TCU)

TCU By 1-7 points

27.2%

TCU By 8-14 points

20.1%

OKST By 1-7 points

21.6%

OKST By 8-14 points

10.7%

AI Model Projected Score
66
TCU
63
OKLAHOMA STATE
Simulated Score
72
TCU
75
OKLAHOMA STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Horned Frogs Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Cowboys Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Horned Frogs (-1.5) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Sim Cowboys (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u155.5 Loss
Proj Total: 129.0
D
Sim u155.5 Win
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 11, 2026 OKST @ TCU 88 - 95
Feb 14, 2026 TCU @ OKST 95 - 92
Jan 20, 2026 OKST @ TCU 65 - 68
Feb 12, 2025 OKST @ TCU 72 - 73
Jan 23, 2024 TCU @ OKST 74 - 69
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +28.1% more
TCU: 3.4 vs Oklahoma State: 2.4
Free Throw % (L5) +1.6%
TCU: 67.3% vs Oklahoma State: 65.7%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +4.1%
Oklahoma State: 33.4% vs TCU: 29.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TCU Score 66.0 95
OKST Score 63.0 92
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 33.4 / 29.3 40.0 / 48.0
Assists 13.8 / 14.0 20.0 / 16.0
Blocks 2.4 / 3.4 5.0 / 7.0
Field Goal % 41.2 / 42.6 51.0 / 45.0
Free Throw % 65.7 / 67.3 70.0 / 78.0
Rebounding 34.7 / 35.6 36.0 / 39.0
Steals 7.9 / 7.8 4.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 12.8 / 12.8 9.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
40%TICKETS60%
41%MONEY59%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
36%TICKETS64%
27%MONEY73%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
51%TICKETS49%
81%MONEY19%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TCU Advantage
23-12-0 (65.7%)
Margin: 5.3 ATS +/-: +1.1
OKST
20-15-0 (57.1%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-: -0.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TCU Advantage
19-16-0 (54.3%)
Margin: 5.3 ATS +/-: +1.1
OKST
16-19-0 (45.7%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-: -0.9
⚖️ Over/Under
TCU
15-20-0
O: 42.9% / U: 57.1% Total +/-: -0.3
OKST
20-15-0
O: 57.1% / U: 42.9% Total +/-: +2.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
OKST
TCU
OKST
TCU
ML
60% 21-14
74% 26-9
66% 21-11
63% 19-11
ATS
57% 20-15
74% 26-9
66% 21-11
63% 19-11
TTL
57% 20-15
66% 23-12
100% 32-0
100% 30-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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