Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Patriots @ Revolutionaries GMU @ GW

GEORGE MASON

PATRIOTSGMU

21-4  |  Road

53
FINAL
Fri, Feb 13 • 7:00 PM ET
Charles E. Smith Center
View Odds Details →

GEORGE WASHINGTON

REVOLUTIONARIESGW

14-11  |  Home

72
AI Model Win Probability
PATRIOTS
100%
📊
REVOLUTIONARIES
0%
PATRIOTS --
REVOLUTIONARIES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
128.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-40.0
GEORGE WASHINGTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +40.0 points (George Washington)
PatriotsGMU (-3.5) 0 RevolutionariesGW (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Patriots Cover

0.0%

Revolutionaries Cover

100.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around GW -40.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (GW)

GMU By 1-7 points

0.0%

GMU By 8-14 points

0.0%

GW By 1-7 points

0.1%

GW By 8-14 points

0.5%

AI Model Projected Score
44
GEORGE MASON
84
GEORGE WASHINGTON
Simulated Score
71
GEORGE MASON
68
GEORGE WASHINGTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Revolutionaries Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Patriots Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Revolutionaries (-3.5) Win
Proj Spread: -40.0
D
Sim Patriots (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u149.5 Win
Proj Total: 128.0
D
Sim u149.5 Win
Proj Total: 139.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 13, 2026 GMU @ GW 53 - 72
Jan 19, 2026 GW @ GMU 64 - 69
Mar 14, 2025 GW @ GMU 65 - 80
Feb 5, 2025 GMU @ GW 53 - 50
Jan 18, 2025 GW @ GMU 77 - 80
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +41.3% more
George Washington: 15.3 vs George Mason: 10.8
Steals (L5) +38.4% more
George Washington: 7.2 vs George Mason: 5.2
Blocks (L5) +23.5% more
George Washington: 2.9 vs George Mason: 2.3
Turnovers (L5) +10.2% more
George Washington: 14.3 vs George Mason: 12.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
GMU Score 44.0 53
GW Score 84.0 72
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 32.8 / 27.5 35.0 / 35.0
Assists 15.3 / 10.8 16.0 / 15.0
Blocks 2.9 / 2.3 1.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 43.7 / 44.7 50.0 / 39.0
Free Throw % 73.5 / 69.0 86.0 / 67.0
Rebounding 37.9 / 35.5 32.0 / 25.0
Steals 7.2 / 5.2 9.0 / 2.0
Turnovers 14.3 / 12.9 9.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
46%TICKETS54%
36%MONEY64%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
56%TICKETS44%
38%MONEY62%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
50%TICKETS50%
48%MONEY52%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
GMU Advantage
23-10-0 (69.7%)
Margin: 5.5 ATS +/-: -1.2
GW
19-16-0 (54.3%)
Margin: 7.2 ATS +/-: -0.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
GMU Advantage
16-16-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 5.5 ATS +/-: -1.2
GW
15-18-0 (45.5%)
Margin: 7.2 ATS +/-: -0.2
⚖️ Over/Under
GMU
15-17-0
O: 46.9% / U: 53.1% Total +/-: -1.7
GW
15-18-0
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6% Total +/-: -0.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
GW
GMU
GW
GMU
ML
63% 22-13
55% 18-15
60% 21-14
73% 24-9
ATS
69% 24-11
55% 18-15
60% 21-14
73% 24-9
TTL
60% 21-14
58% 19-14
100% 35-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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