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UNLV

REBELSUNLV

12-12  |  Road

86
FINAL
Fri, Feb 13 • 10:00 PM ET
ExtraMile Arena
View Odds Details →

BOISE STATE

BRONCOSBOIS

15-9  |  Home

83
AI Model Win Probability
REBELS
0%
📊
BRONCOS
100%
REBELS --
BRONCOS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
134.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-16.0
UNLV
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +16.0 points (UNLV)
RebelsUNLV (-3.5) 0 BroncosBOIS (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Rebels Cover

94.5%

Broncos Cover

5.5%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around UNLV -16.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UNLV)

UNLV By 1-7 points

13.7%

UNLV By 8-14 points

24.3%

BOIS By 1-7 points

4.0%

BOIS By 8-14 points

0.8%

AI Model Projected Score
75
UNLV
59
BOISE STATE
Simulated Score
71
UNLV
76
BOISE STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Rebels Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Broncos Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Rebels (-10.5) Win
Proj Spread: -16.0
D
Sim Broncos (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u153.5 Loss
Proj Total: 134.0
D
Sim u153.5 Win
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 13, 2026 UNLV @ BOIS 86 - 83
Jan 13, 2026 BOIS @ UNLV 85 - 89
Feb 4, 2025 BOIS @ UNLV 71 - 62
Jan 7, 2025 UNLV @ BOIS 59 - 81
Jan 16, 2024 UNLV @ BOIS 68 - 64
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +38.9% more
UNLV: 5.2 vs Boise State: 3.2
Steals (L5) +28.4% more
UNLV: 5.5 vs Boise State: 3.9
Turnovers (L5) +13.6% more
UNLV: 12.1 vs Boise State: 10.5
Rebounding (L5) +12.6% more
UNLV: 37.5 vs Boise State: 32.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UNLV Score 75.0 86
BOIS Score 59.0 83
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 37.4 / 34.5 48.0 / 48.0
Assists 15.0 / 14.3 14.0 / 12.0
Blocks 3.2 / 5.2 1.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 48.4 / 47.5 49.0 / 48.0
Free Throw % 83.4 / 77.3 91.0 / 77.0
Rebounding 32.8 / 37.5 32.0 / 30.0
Steals 3.9 / 5.5 4.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 10.5 / 12.1 12.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
11%TICKETS89%
39%MONEY61%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
52%TICKETS48%
53%MONEY47%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
54%TICKETS46%
58%MONEY42%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UNLV
18-17-0 (51.4%)
Margin: 0.5 ATS +/-: -0.5
BOIS Advantage
20-12-0 (62.5%)
Margin: 4.7 ATS +/-: -1.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UNLV
17-17-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 0.5 ATS +/-: -0.5
BOIS Advantage
17-13-0 (56.7%)
Margin: 4.7 ATS +/-: -1.2
⚖️ Over/Under
UNLV
20-14-0
O: 58.8% / U: 41.2% Total +/-: +3.3
BOIS
17-13-0
O: 56.7% / U: 43.3% Total +/-: +3.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BOIS
UNLV
BOIS
UNLV
ML
50% 16-16
50% 17-17
61% 19-12
59% 20-14
ATS
50% 16-16
65% 22-12
61% 19-12
59% 20-14
TTL
56% 18-14
62% 21-13
100% 31-0
100% 34-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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