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MICHIGAN STATE

SPARTANSMSU

20-4  |  Road

71
FINAL
Fri, Feb 13 • 8:00 PM ET
Kohl Center
View Odds Details →

WISCONSIN

BADGERSWIS

17-7  |  Home

92
AI Model Win Probability
SPARTANS
100%
📊
BADGERS
0%
SPARTANS --
BADGERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
149.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
WISCONSIN
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Wisconsin)
SpartansMSU (-3.5) 0 BadgersWIS (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Spartans Cover

46.0%

Badgers Cover

54.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around WIS -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WIS)

MSU By 1-7 points

24.3%

MSU By 8-14 points

13.7%

WIS By 1-7 points

26.2%

WIS By 8-14 points

16.9%

AI Model Projected Score
74
MICHIGAN STATE
75
WISCONSIN
Simulated Score
68
MICHIGAN STATE
72
WISCONSIN
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Badgers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Badgers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Badgers (+1.5) Win
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim Badgers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o148.5 Win
Proj Total: 149.0
D
Sim u148.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 13, 2026 MSU @ WIS 71 - 92
Mar 15, 2025 WIS @ MSU 77 - 74
Mar 2, 2025 WIS @ MSU 62 - 71
Jan 26, 2024 MSU @ WIS 66 - 81
Dec 5, 2023 WIS @ MSU 70 - 57
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +27.8% more
Wisconsin: 5.4 vs Michigan State: 4.2
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +6.4%
Wisconsin: 38.1% vs Michigan State: 31.7%
Turnovers (L5) +37.7% more
Michigan State: 10.3 vs Wisconsin: 6.4
Rebounding (L5) +14.8% more
Michigan State: 41.6 vs Wisconsin: 35.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MSU Score 74.0 71
WIS Score 75.0 92
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 38.1 / 31.7 43.0 / 30.0
Assists 15.9 / 18.5 14.0 / 13.0
Blocks 3.1 / 3.5 3.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 43.0 / 45.4 48.0 / 36.0
Free Throw % 80.2 / 80.1 74.0 / 94.0
Rebounding 35.5 / 41.6 38.0 / 38.0
Steals 5.4 / 4.2 6.0 / 4.0
Turnovers 6.4 / 10.3 6.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
73%TICKETS27%
69%MONEY31%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
78%TICKETS22%
74%MONEY26%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
67%TICKETS33%
75%MONEY25%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MSU Advantage
27-8-0 (77.1%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +1.5
WIS
24-11-0 (68.6%)
Margin: 6.9 ATS +/-: +1.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MSU
17-16-2 (51.5%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +1.5
WIS Advantage
20-15-0 (57.1%)
Margin: 6.9 ATS +/-: +1.1
⚖️ Over/Under
MSU
16-19-0
O: 45.7% / U: 54.3% Total +/-: +1.5
WIS
22-13-0
O: 62.9% / U: 37.1% Total +/-: +3.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WIS
MSU
WIS
MSU
ML
60% 21-14
71% 25-10
69% 24-11
61% 20-13
ATS
51% 18-17
71% 25-10
69% 24-11
61% 20-13
TTL
57% 20-15
49% 17-18
100% 35-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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