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MOUNT ST. MARY'S

MOUNTAINEERSMSM

11-15  |  Road

65
FINAL
Fri, Feb 13 • 7:00 PM ET
Alumni Gymnasium (Rider)
View Odds Details →

RIDER

BRONCSRID

3-20  |  Home

55
AI Model Win Probability
MOUNTAINEERS
0%
📊
BRONCS
100%
MOUNTAINEERS --
BRONCS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
135.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-29.0
MOUNT ST. MARY'S
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +29.0 points (Mount St. Mary's)
MountaineersMSM (-3.5) 0 BroncsRID (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Mountaineers Cover

99.8%

Broncs Cover

0.2%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around MSM -29.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MSM)

MSM By 1-7 points

1.4%

MSM By 8-14 points

5.8%

RID By 1-7 points

0.1%

RID By 8-14 points

0.0%

AI Model Projected Score
82
MOUNT ST. MARY'S
53
RIDER
Simulated Score
68
MOUNT ST. MARY'S
72
RIDER
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Mountaineers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Broncs Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Mountaineers (+4.5) Win
Proj Spread: -29.0
D
Sim Broncs (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u137.5 Win
Proj Total: 135.0
D
Sim u137.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 13, 2026 MSM @ RID 65 - 55
Jan 24, 2026 RID @ MSM 61 - 71
Feb 23, 2025 RID @ MSM 72 - 79
Jan 16, 2025 MSM @ RID 60 - 66
Feb 16, 2024 MSM @ RID 57 - 61
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +28.0% more
Mount St. Mary's: 13.0 vs Rider: 9.3
Assists (L5) +23.0% more
Mount St. Mary's: 13.9 vs Rider: 10.7
Rebounding (L5) +20.3% more
Mount St. Mary's: 38.0 vs Rider: 30.3
Free Throw % (L5) +8.6%
Mount St. Mary's: 70.0% vs Rider: 61.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MSM Score 82.0 65
RID Score 53.0 55
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 28.7 / 36.9 14.0 / 33.0
Assists 10.7 / 13.9 6.0 / 15.0
Blocks 3.6 / 2.2 2.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 39.0 / 45.5 35.0 / 51.0
Free Throw % 61.4 / 70.0 65.0 / 63.0
Rebounding 30.3 / 38.0 28.0 / 39.0
Steals 5.7 / 4.3 12.0 / 2.0
Turnovers 9.3 / 13.0 7.0 / 18.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
91%TICKETS9%
93%MONEY7%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
72%TICKETS28%
68%MONEY32%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
56%TICKETS44%
24%MONEY76%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MSM Advantage
15-17-0 (46.9%)
Margin: -2.1 ATS +/-: 0.0
RID
4-25-0 (13.8%)
Margin: -12.6 ATS +/-: -3.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MSM Advantage
17-13-1 (56.7%)
Margin: -2.1 ATS +/-: 0.0
RID
7-18-3 (28.0%)
Margin: -12.6 ATS +/-: -3.1
⚖️ Over/Under
MSM
10-21-0
O: 32.3% / U: 67.7% Total +/-: -3.9
RID
9-19-0
O: 32.1% / U: 67.9% Total +/-: -0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
RID
MSM
RID
MSM
ML
72% 21-8
53% 17-15
66% 19-10
61% 19-12
ATS
72% 21-8
62% 20-12
66% 19-10
61% 19-12
TTL
62% 18-11
81% 26-6
100% 29-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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