Home / NBA Projections NBA / Trail Blazers @ Jazz POR @ UTAH

PORTLAND

TRAIL BLAZERSPOR

26-29  |  Road

135
FINAL
Thu, Feb 12 • 9:00 PM ET
Delta Center
View Odds Details →

UTAH

JAZZUTAH

18-37  |  Home

119
AI Model Win Probability
TRAIL BLAZERS
100%
📊
JAZZ
0%
TRAIL BLAZERS --
JAZZ --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
249.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
UTAH
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Utah)
Trail BlazersPOR (-3.5) 0 JazzUTAH (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Trail Blazers Cover

38.2%

Jazz Cover

61.8%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around UTAH -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UTAH)

POR By 1-7 points

21.6%

POR By 8-14 points

10.7%

UTAH By 1-7 points

27.2%

UTAH By 8-14 points

20.1%

AI Model Projected Score
123
PORTLAND
126
UTAH
Simulated Score
105
PORTLAND
118
UTAH
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Jazz Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Jazz Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Jazz (+7) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Sim Jazz (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o234.5 Win
Proj Total: 249.0
D
Sim u234.5 Win
Proj Total: 223.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 13, 2026 UTAH @ POR 114 - 124
Feb 12, 2026 POR @ UTAH 135 - 119
Jan 5, 2026 UTAH @ POR 117 - 137
Oct 29, 2025 POR @ UTAH 136 - 134
Oct 16, 2025 POR @ UTAH 129 - 132
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +39.4% more
Utah: 9.2 vs Portland: 6.6
Free Throw % (L5) +6.4%
Utah: 83.4% vs Portland: 77.0%
Field Goal % (L5) +2.6%
Utah: 49.0% vs Portland: 46.4%
Blocks (L5) +34.2% more
Portland: 5.0 vs Utah: 3.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
POR Score 123.0 135
UTAH Score 126.0 119
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 35.6 / 37.6 37.0 / 39.0
Assists 30.2 / 28.1 28.0 / 26.0
Blocks 3.3 / 5.0 3.0 / 7.0
Field Goal % 49.0 / 46.4 48.0 / 51.0
Free Throw % 83.4 / 77.0 72.0 / 76.0
Rebounding 51.3 / 49.0 38.0 / 52.0
Steals 9.2 / 6.6 15.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 16.3 / 20.7 19.0 / 21.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
64%TICKETS36%
62%MONEY38%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
52%TICKETS48%
79%MONEY21%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
60%TICKETS40%
71%MONEY29%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
POR Advantage
44-44-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -0.9 ATS +/-: -0.4
UTAH
22-60-0 (26.8%)
Margin: -8.4 ATS +/-: -0.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
POR Advantage
46-42-0 (52.3%)
Margin: -0.9 ATS +/-: -0.4
UTAH
41-41-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -8.4 ATS +/-: -0.2
⚖️ Over/Under
POR
44-44-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -1.0
UTAH
49-33-0
O: 59.8% / U: 40.2% Total +/-: +5.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UTAH
POR
UTAH
POR
ML
60% 96-63
53% 56-49
48% 40-43
55% 49-40
ATS
68% 108-51
62% 65-39-1
48% 40-43
55% 49-40
TTL
75% 119-39-1
56% 58-46-1
100% 83-0
100% 89-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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