HIGH POINT
PANTHERSHPU
22-4 | Road
95
SOUTH CAROLINA UPSTATE
SPARTANSUPST
11-14 | Home
70
AI Model Win Probability
PANTHERS
0%
SPARTANS
100%
PANTHERS
--
SPARTANS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
170.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+2.0
SOUTH CAROLINA UPSTATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around UPST +2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UPST)
HPU By 1-7 points
26.8%
HPU By 8-14 points
18.6%
UPST By 1-7 points
23.0%
UPST By 8-14 points
12.2%
AI Model Projected Score
High Point
86
HIGH POINT
South Carolina Upstate
84
SOUTH CAROLINA UPSTATE
Simulated Score
High Point
78
HIGH POINT
South Carolina Upstate
70
SOUTH CAROLINA UPSTATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Panthers
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Panthers
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Spartans (+14.5)
Win
Proj Spread: +2.0
D
Sim
Panthers (-0)
Win
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o154.5
Win
Proj Total: 170.0
D
Sim
u154.5
Win
Proj Total: 148.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 12, 2026
HPU @ UPST
95 - 70
Jan 17, 2026
UPST @ HPU
69 - 89
Feb 26, 2025
UPST @ HPU
66 - 88
Jan 22, 2025
HPU @ UPST
86 - 77
Feb 14, 2024
UPST @ HPU
86 - 81
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+40.4% more
High Point: 13.5
vs
South Carolina Upstate: 8.1
Free Throw % (L5)
+11.3%
High Point: 78.8%
vs
South Carolina Upstate: 67.5%
Blocks (L5)
+10.8% more
High Point: 3.2
vs
South Carolina Upstate: 2.9
Field Goal % (L5)
+1.6%
High Point: 44.7%
vs
South Carolina Upstate: 43.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
HPU Score
86.0
95
UPST Score
84.0
70
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
35.3 / 26.9
35.0 / 39.0
Assists
13.2 / 13.4
13.0 / 18.0
Blocks
2.9 / 3.2
6.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
43.2 / 44.7
48.0 / 45.0
Free Throw %
67.5 / 78.8
70.0 / 76.0
Rebounding
33.8 / 33.8
37.0 / 32.0
Steals
8.1 / 13.5
5.0 / 19.0
Turnovers
8.9 / 9.6
27.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
HPU
Advantage
31-5-0
(86.1%)
Margin: 18.5
ATS +/-: +1.2
UPST
13-19-0
(40.6%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-: -0.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
HPU
Advantage
17-15-1
(53.1%)
Margin: 18.5
ATS +/-: +1.2
UPST
13-16-0
(44.8%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-: -0.6
⚖️ Over/Under
HPU
22-11-0
O: 66.7% / U: 33.3%
Total +/-: +1.4
UPST
14-15-0
O: 48.3% / U: 51.7%
Total +/-: -3.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UPST
HPU
UPST
HPU
ML
61%
19-12
80%
28-7
83%
25-5
80%
28-7
ATS
61%
19-12
71%
25-10
83%
25-5
80%
28-7
TTL
52%
16-15
66%
23-12
100%
30-0
100%
35-0
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