UNC ASHEVILLE
BULLDOGSUNCA
11-13 | Road
79
LONGWOOD
LANCERSLONG
13-13 | Home
74
AI Model Win Probability
BULLDOGS
0%
LANCERS
100%
BULLDOGS
--
LANCERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
159.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-35.0
UNC ASHEVILLE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +35.0 points (UNC Asheville)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around UNCA -35.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UNCA)
UNCA By 1-7 points
0.3%
UNCA By 8-14 points
1.7%
LONG By 1-7 points
0.0%
LONG By 8-14 points
0.0%
AI Model Projected Score
UNC Asheville
97
UNC ASHEVILLE
Longwood
62
LONGWOOD
Simulated Score
UNC Asheville
68
UNC ASHEVILLE
Longwood
72
LONGWOOD
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Bulldogs
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Lancers
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Bulldogs (-2)
Win
Proj Spread: -35.0
D
Sim
Lancers (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o142.5
Win
Proj Total: 159.0
D
Sim
u142.5
Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 6, 2026
LONG @ UNCA
82 - 85
Feb 12, 2026
UNCA @ LONG
79 - 74
Jan 7, 2026
LONG @ UNCA
61 - 72
Feb 22, 2025
LONG @ UNCA
82 - 87
Jan 8, 2025
UNCA @ LONG
76 - 85
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+73.8% more
UNC Asheville: 5.2
vs
Longwood: 1.4
Assists (L5)
+12.4% more
UNC Asheville: 11.9
vs
Longwood: 10.4
Free Throw % (L5)
+4.8%
UNC Asheville: 70.3%
vs
Longwood: 65.5%
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+4.6%
UNC Asheville: 35.4%
vs
Longwood: 30.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
UNCA Score
97.0
79
LONG Score
62.0
74
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
30.7 / 35.4
35.0 / 42.0
Assists
10.4 / 11.9
15.0 / 9.0
Blocks
1.4 / 5.2
2.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
46.2 / 46.9
44.0 / 46.0
Free Throw %
65.5 / 70.3
59.0 / 75.0
Rebounding
37.5 / 34.0
33.0 / 28.0
Steals
8.9 / 4.6
2.0 / 6.0
Turnovers
13.6 / 10.1
10.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UNCA
15-17-0
(46.9%)
Margin: 0.5
ATS +/-: -0.2
LONG
Advantage
16-16-0
(50.0%)
Margin: 3.6
ATS +/-: +0.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UNCA
Advantage
15-14-0
(51.7%)
Margin: 0.5
ATS +/-: -0.2
LONG
13-16-0
(44.8%)
Margin: 3.6
ATS +/-: +0.1
⚖️ Over/Under
UNCA
15-14-0
O: 51.7% / U: 48.3%
Total +/-: -2.8
LONG
17-12-0
O: 58.6% / U: 41.4%
Total +/-: +2.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LONG
UNCA
LONG
UNCA
ML
65%
20-11
53%
16-14
68%
21-10
63%
19-11
ATS
68%
21-10
57%
17-13
68%
21-10
63%
19-11
TTL
65%
20-11
60%
18-12
100%
31-0
100%
30-0
Contextual Game News
Nick Saban Declares Georgia the Most Complete Team in College Fo…
Kirby Smart Stays Silent on Nate Frazier's Injury Status as Geor…
Tigers Lock Up Broadcast Duo Dan Dickerson and Jason Benetti wit…
Georgia Bulldogs Set to Clash with Oklahoma Sooners as Heavy Fav…
NC State's Stunning Collapse at Vanderbilt Joins List of Infamou…