UMBC
RETRIEVERSUMBC
14-8 | Road
78
MAINE
BLACK BEARSME
6-19 | Home
62
AI Model Win Probability
RETRIEVERS
100%
BLACK BEARS
0%
RETRIEVERS
--
BLACK BEARS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
157.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-19.0
MAINE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +19.0 points (Maine)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around ME -19.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ME)
UMBC By 1-7 points
2.2%
UMBC By 8-14 points
0.4%
ME By 1-7 points
9.3%
ME By 8-14 points
20.1%
AI Model Projected Score
UMBC
69
UMBC
Maine
88
MAINE
Simulated Score
UMBC
68
UMBC
Maine
75
MAINE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Black Bears
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Black Bears
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Black Bears (+3.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -19.0
D
Sim
Black Bears (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o135.5
Win
Proj Total: 157.0
D
Sim
u135.5
Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 12, 2026
UMBC @ ME
78 - 62
Jan 8, 2026
ME @ UMBC
62 - 69
Feb 8, 2025
UMBC @ ME
50 - 73
Jan 18, 2025
ME @ UMBC
87 - 62
Feb 22, 2024
UMBC @ ME
56 - 62
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+87.2% more
Maine: 2.6
vs
UMBC: 1.4
Steals (L5)
+72.8% more
Maine: 8.8
vs
UMBC: 5.1
Turnovers (L5)
+52.8% more
Maine: 9.7
vs
UMBC: 6.3
Assists (L5)
+44.1% more
Maine: 15.4
vs
UMBC: 10.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
UMBC Score
69.0
78
ME Score
88.0
62
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
36.6 / 33.9
32.0 / 18.0
Assists
15.4 / 10.7
12.0 / 12.0
Blocks
2.6 / 1.4
2.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
49.1 / 44.0
37.0 / 45.0
Free Throw %
66.9 / 77.7
68.0 / 86.0
Rebounding
22.6 / 34.0
29.0 / 43.0
Steals
8.8 / 5.1
2.0 / 3.0
Turnovers
9.7 / 6.3
10.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UMBC
Advantage
24-9-0
(72.7%)
Margin: 8.8
ATS +/-: +6.0
ME
8-24-0
(25.0%)
Margin: -5.9
ATS +/-: -1.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UMBC
Advantage
19-12-0
(61.3%)
Margin: 8.8
ATS +/-: +6.0
ME
14-17-0
(45.2%)
Margin: -5.9
ATS +/-: -1.9
⚖️ Over/Under
UMBC
14-17-0
O: 45.2% / U: 54.8%
Total +/-: -0.5
ME
12-19-0
O: 38.7% / U: 61.3%
Total +/-: -2.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ME
UMBC
ME
UMBC
ML
45%
14-17
58%
18-13
52%
16-15
55%
17-14
ATS
55%
17-14
68%
21-10
52%
16-15
55%
17-14
TTL
55%
17-14
39%
12-19
100%
31-0
100%
31-0
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