LITTLE ROCK
TROJANSLR
9-16 | Road
77
WESTERN ILLINOIS
LEATHERNECKSWIU
5-21 | Home
58
AI Model Win Probability
TROJANS
100%
LEATHERNECKS
0%
TROJANS
--
LEATHERNECKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
161.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-25.0
WESTERN ILLINOIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +25.0 points (Western Illinois)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around WIU -25.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WIU)
LR By 1-7 points
0.5%
LR By 8-14 points
0.1%
WIU By 1-7 points
3.3%
WIU By 8-14 points
10.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Little Rock
68
LITTLE ROCK
Western Illinois
93
WESTERN ILLINOIS
Simulated Score
Little Rock
70
LITTLE ROCK
Western Illinois
75
WESTERN ILLINOIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Leathernecks
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Leathernecks
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Leathernecks (+7.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -25.0
D
Sim
Leathernecks (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o141.5
Loss
Proj Total: 161.0
D
Sim
u141.5
Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 12, 2026
LR @ WIU
77 - 58
Jan 17, 2026
WIU @ LR
79 - 86
Feb 22, 2025
WIU @ LR
61 - 75
Jan 23, 2025
LR @ WIU
62 - 51
Mar 8, 2024
WIU @ LR
57 - 82
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+13.3% more
Western Illinois: 11.2
vs
Little Rock: 9.9
Blocks (L5)
+55.4% more
Little Rock: 4.4
vs
Western Illinois: 2.0
Steals (L5)
+34.0% more
Little Rock: 7.2
vs
Western Illinois: 4.7
Assists (L5)
+18.8% more
Little Rock: 10.3
vs
Western Illinois: 8.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
LR Score
68.0
77
WIU Score
93.0
58
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
33.0 / 31.9
25.0 / 42.0
Assists
8.4 / 10.3
8.0 / 17.0
Blocks
2.0 / 4.4
3.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
39.9 / 40.3
38.0 / 45.0
Free Throw %
72.2 / 73.5
44.0 / 54.0
Rebounding
30.3 / 35.1
32.0 / 45.0
Steals
4.7 / 7.2
3.0 / 7.0
Turnovers
11.2 / 9.9
10.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LR
Advantage
12-20-0
(37.5%)
Margin: -3.6
ATS +/-: -2.0
WIU
5-26-0
(16.1%)
Margin: -11.9
ATS +/-: -5.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LR
Advantage
12-18-0
(40.0%)
Margin: -3.6
ATS +/-: -2.0
WIU
11-17-0
(39.3%)
Margin: -11.9
ATS +/-: -5.3
⚖️ Over/Under
LR
15-15-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +1.0
WIU
13-15-0
O: 46.4% / U: 53.6%
Total +/-: -0.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WIU
LR
WIU
LR
ML
45%
14-17
52%
16-15
61%
19-12
68%
17-8
ATS
52%
16-15
45%
14-17
61%
19-12
68%
17-8
TTL
45%
14-17
58%
18-13
100%
31-0
100%
25-0
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